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Natural Gas Feb '26 (NGG26)

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Natural Gas Futures Market News and Commentary

Natural Gas Prices Rally to a 1-1/2 week high on Forecasts for Cold U.S. Weather

Mar Nymex natural gas (NGH19) on Friday closed up by +0.020 (+0.74%). Mar nat-gas on Friday rallied to a new 1-1/2 week high on signs of tighter supplies and forecasts for colder temperatures in the U.S. Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories fell by -177 bcf in the week of Feb 15, a larger decline than expectations of -169 and larger than the 5-year average decline of -148 bcf for this time of year. U.S. nat-gas stockpiles as of Feb 15 stood at an 8-3/4 month low of 1.705 tcf, down -3.1% y/y and -17.5% below the 5-year average. Nat-gas prices also found support Friday on expectations for colder weather in the U.S. NOAA has forecasted colder-than-normal temperature across the western and midwestern U.S. during Feb 27-Mar 3 with the cold spreading to the south the following five days, which should increase heating demand for nat-gas. On the negative side, the March-April nat-gas futures spread remained negative by -2.3 cents Friday. A negative spread suggests nat-gas supplies will be ample by the end of the heating season. Also, Friday's data showed that U.S. lower-48 state nat-gas production was 84.747 bcf, up +9.2% y/y. Big Picture Natural Gas Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) tight U.S. working gas inventories that as of Feb 15 stood at an 8-3/4 month low of 1.705 tcf, -17.5% below the 5-year average, (2) strong global natural gas demand due to firm global economic growth and the need to substitute for coal to reduce global CO2 emissions, and (3) significant U.S. LNG export potential as U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico rose to a 2-3/4 month high of 5.127 bcf and are up by +19% so far this year. Bearish factors include (1) near-record U.S. natural gas production and forecasts for production growth of +3% in 2019, (2) the March-April nat-gas futures spread remaining in negative territory, which suggests nat-gas supplies will be abundant by the end of the heating season, and (3) China’s 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. LNG, which substantially reduces the potential for U.S. LNG exports to China, although China as part of the Dec 1 US/Chinese tariff ceasefire agreed to start buying U.S. LNG.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Natural Gas
Contract Size
10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units)
Tick Size
0.001 per MMBtu ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 8:00a.m. - 1:30p.m.) (Settles 1:30p.m.) CST
Exchange
NYMEX
Point Value
$10,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,025/2,750
First Notice Date
01/29/26 (2533 days)
Expiration Date
01/28/26 (2532 days)

Seasonal Chart

Natural Gas Feb '26
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Feb Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Feb 5, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
579,682 (+21,660)
624,476 (+25,114)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
266,076 (-14,115)
262,886 (-17,125)
Producers - Long / Short
243,836 (+13,750)
287,555 (+11,417)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
165,993 (-878)
167,068 (+4,909)
Managed Money - Long / Short
226,638 (-19,387)
44,541 (+751)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
39,438 (+5,272)
218,345 (-17,876)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
3.111 +1.51%
on 01/24/19
3.191 -1.03%
on 02/14/19
+0.004 (+0.13%)
since 01/22/19
3-Month
3.111 +1.51%
on 01/24/19
3.209 -1.59%
on 11/30/18
+0.032 (+1.02%)
since 11/21/18
52-Week
2.988 +5.69%
on 09/04/18
3.323 -4.97%
on 03/29/18
-0.108 (-3.31%)
since 02/22/18

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Natural Gas Prices Rally to a 1-1/2 week high on Forecasts for Cold U.S. Weather

Mar Nymex natural gas (NGH19) on Friday closed up by +0.020 (+0.74%). Mar nat-gas on Friday rallied to a new 1-1/2 week high on signs of tighter supplies and forecasts for colder temperatures in the U.S....

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 32% Buy with a Weakening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 3.158
1st Resistance Point 3.158
Last Price 3.158s
1st Support Level 3.158
2nd Support Level 3.158

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52-Week High 3.323
Fibonacci 61.8% 3.195
Last Price 3.158s
Fibonacci 50% 3.155
Fibonacci 38.2% 3.116
52-Week Low 2.988

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