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Eurodollar Jun '18 (GEM18)

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Eurodollar Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Close Higher on Strength in European Bonds and Fed Rate Cut

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ19) on Wednesday closed up +3.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield fell -0.7 bp to 1.794%. Dec T-notes moved higher Wednesday on strength in European bond markets along with the action by the Fed to cut the funds rate target by 25 bp. 10-year German bunds rallied Wednesday, which boosted T-note prices, after ECB Governing Council member Villeroy de Galhau said there will be low interest rates in the Eurozone for "a long time." 10-year UK gilt prices rallied to a 4-session high Wednesday after European Union President Juncker said the risk of the U.K. leaving the bloc without a deal on Oct 31 was "palpable." Also, slack price pressures lifted gilt prices and supported gains in T-notes after Wednesday's data showed the UK Aug core CPI rose by only +1.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.8% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 2-3/4 years. T-notes fell back from their best levels Wednesday afternoon even after the Fed cut the fed funds rate target by 25 bp to 1.75%-2.00%. T-note prices were undercut by the Fed's new dot plot that showed policy makers are split on further rate cuts. Five Fed members think the funds rate at the end of 2019 should be higher than it is after Wednesday's rate cut, five members wanted Wednesday's rate cut but are not projecting any more cuts, and seven members are projecting one more 25 bp rate cut by the end of the year. Wednesday's U.S. economic data was negative for T-note prices after Aug housing starts jumped +12.3% to a 12-year high of 1.364 million, stronger than expectations of +5.0% to 1.250 million. Also, Aug building permits unexpectedly rose +7.7% to a 12-1/4 year high of 1.419 million, stronger than expectations of -1.3% to 1.300 million. U.S. inflation expectations fell back Wednesday after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate dropped by -6.0 bp to 1.602%. The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate is still up sharply from last Tuesday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.494%.
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