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Gold Aug '23 (GCQ23)
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Gold Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Slightly Lower on Expectations of a Fed Pause

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell by -0.03%.  The dollar is under pressure from expectations the Fed will pause its rate-hike campaign at next week’s FOMC meeting.  The market expects only a 29% chance the Fed will raise its fed funds target range by +25 bp next week.  The dollar recovered from its worst levels after the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 1-1/2 week high of 3.799%.

Wednesday’s U.S. economic news was mixed for the dollar.  On the bearish side, the U.S Apr trade deficit widened to -$74.6 billion from -$64.2 billion in Mar, the largest deficit in 6 months but smaller than expectations of -$75.8 billion.  Conversely, Apr consumer credit rose +$23.01 billion, stronger than expectations of +$22.0 billion and the most in 5 months.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Wednesday rose by +0.10%.  Central bank divergence is bullish for the euro on the prospects for the Fed to pause raising interest rates next week while the ECB raises rates.  Also, hawkish comments Wednesday... Read more

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