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Canadian Dollar Dec '19 (D6Z19)

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Canadian Dollar Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Moves Lower on Global Economic Concerns and Strength in GBP/USD

The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday fell by -0.163 (-0.17%). Dec euro-fx futures (E6Z9) closed up +0.0004 (+0.04%), and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0010 (+0.09%). Dec yen futures (J6Z9) closed down -0.0044 (-0.47%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) rose +0.47 (+0.43%). The dollar index gave up early gains and moved lower Tuesday on strength in GBP/USD along with global economic concerns that were dovish for Fed policy. GBP/USD jumped +1.40% Tuesday to a 4-3/4 month high on Brexit optimism as reports emerge that a Brexit deal might be possible to present to the EU Summit on Thursday and Friday for their approval. If a deal emerges, then the UK Parliament will be meeting on Saturday in a special session and will then be able to vote on the deal. If a Brexit deal is approved by the EU leaders and the UK Parliament, then the UK will be able to exit the EU on October 31 with a long transition period during which the UK will remain under single-market rules while a UK-EU trade agreement is negotiated. The dollar was also undercut by the IMF's cut on Tuesday in its global 2019 GDP forecast to a 10-year low of 3.0% from a 3.2% estimate in July, the fifth time this year that the IMF has cut its GDP forecast. Dovish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard on Tuesday also weighed on the dollar when he said that rising risks to growth "may make it more difficult for the FOMC to achieve its 2% inflation target" and the Fed "must consider" additional rate-cut insurance. The Chinese yuan fell -0.20% against the dollar Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that China wants the U.S. to roll back tariffs on its goods before it could buy as much as $50 billion annually of U.S. agriculture products as part of the "phase one" trade deal. The yuan was also pressured by weak producer prices (which was dovish for PBOC policy) after Tuesday's data showed that the China Sep PPI eased to a 3-year low of -1.2% y/y. A positive factor for the Chinese yuan was Tuesday's Chinese credit data that showed China Sep new yuan loans rose +1.690 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.260 trillion yuan and the biggest increase in 6 months. Also, Sep aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit growth, rose by +2.270 trillion yuan, stronger than expectations of +1.900 trillion yuan. In addition, today's data showed China Sep CPI rose +3.0% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.9% y/y and the largest increase in 5-3/4 years. EUR/USD moved higher Tuesday after data showed the German Oct ZEW survey expectations of economic growth index fell by only -0.3 to -22.8, stronger than expectations of -3.9 to -26.4. Gains in EUR/USD were limited on dovish comments Tuesday from ECB Governing Council member Vasiliauskas who said a simulative monetary policy in the Eurozone is "justified" given the gloomy global economic outlook. USD/JPY rallied to a 2-1/2 month high Tuesday as a rally in stocks cut the safe-haven demand for the yen.
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