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Cocoa Dec '19 (CCZ19)

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Cocoa Futures Market News and Commentary

Cocoa Prices Settle at 4-5 Month Lows on the Outlook for a Bumper Ivory Coast Crop

Sep ICE NY cocoa (CCU19) on Friday closed down -23 (-1.08%), and Sep ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU19) closed down -17 (-1.03%). Cocoa prices extended their 3-week long sell-off Friday with Sep NY cocoa at a 5-1/4 month low and Sep London cocoa at a 4-1/2 month low. Cocoa prices have trended lower over the past three weeks on the outlook for a bumper cocoa harvest in the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer. Tuesday's data showed that Ivory Coast farmers sent 7,291 MT of cocoa to ports from Aug 5-11, up +37% from the same time last year. Cocoa sent to Ivory Coast ports totaled 2.11 MMT cumulatively from Oct 1 through July 31, up +15.3% from the same time last year. On the positive side for cocoa prices is reduced production from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, after the Ghana Cocoa Board said last Tuesday that cocoa purchased from farmers totaled 782,720 MT from Oct 1-July 11, down -6.6% y/y. The 2018/19 cocoa main-crop in Ghana is expected to fall to a 3-year low of 800,000 MT due to an outbreak of the swollen shoot cocoa disease. Current cocoa supplies have tightened after ICE-monitored cocoa inventories fell to a 5-1/4 month low of 4.125 million bags on Thursday. Big Picture Cocoa Market Factors: World cocoa production in 2018/19 will climb +3.9% y/y to a record high of 4.834 MMT and global cocoa grindings will climb +3.4% y/y to a record high of 4.750 MMT (ICCO). The world cocoa surplus in 2018/19 will climb +2.1% y/y to +36,000 MT from the 2017/18 surplus of +9,000 MT. Ivory Coast 2018/19 cocoa production (main crop Oct-Mar; mid-crop May-Aug) will climb +9.5% y/y to a record 2.15 MMT and Ghana 2018/19 cocoa production (main crop Sep-Mar; mid-crop May Aug) will decline -0.6% y/y to 900,00 MMT (ICCO).
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