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Cocoa Sep '19 (CCU19)

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Cocoa Futures Market News and Commentary

Cocoa Prices are Mixed on Offsetting Factors

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU19) this morning is down by -2 (-0.08%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU19) is up by +11 (+0.60%). Cocoa prices are mixed this morning. On the positive side is today's report from Rabobank projecting a global 2019/20 cocoa deficit of -150,000 MT, the first deficit in 4 years, as global 2019/20 cocoa grindings increase by more than 3% y/y. On the negative side is the outlook for a bumper cocoa crop in the Ivory Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer, after Monday's data from the Ivory Coast government showed that Ivory Coast cocoa farmers sent 2.09 MMT of cocoa to ports during Oct 1-Jun 23, up +15.5% from the same time last year. Also, Reuters reported last Friday that the Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop this year may reach a record 600,000 MT, citing exporters and pod counters. Another potential bearish factor for London cocoa is an extremely long position by funds after Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that funds boosted their net long positions on ICE cocoa futures by 4,580 contracts in the week ended June 18 to a 13-month high of 50,862 contracts, which increases the threat of long liquidation pressure. Another bullish factor for cocoa is concern about a smaller cocoa crop in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer. A report Monday said Ghana's main-crop 2018/19 cocoa harvest this year will fall to a 3-year low of 776,418 MT, below forecasts by the Ghana Cocoa Board for a cocoa crop of 800,000 MT. Ghana's cocoa crop has been ravaged by the outbreak of the swollen shoot virus that causes smaller cocoa beans and reduces yields. Cocoa prices rallied to 1-year highs June 12 after Ivory Coast and Ghana processors and buyers agreed to set a minimum price of $2600/MT for the 2020/21 season, although there is some concern that the high minimum price will result in overproduction.
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