Cocoa Prices Under Pressure from Abundant Cocoa Supplies

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU22) on Thursday closed down -64 (-2.70%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU22) closed down -33 (-1.89%).

Cocoa prices Thursday posted moderate losses.  Ample cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast are bearish for cocoa prices after the Ivory Coast government reported Tuesday that Ivory Coast cocoa farmers sent a cumulative 2.35 MMT of cocoa to Ivory Coast ports from Oct 1-July 17, up +0.4%  y/y.  

Cocoa prices last Thursday tumbled to a 1-year low on news of weak U.S. chocolate demand.  Researcher IRI reported last Thursday that the volume of chocolate products sold in the U.S. dropped -1.5% y/y in the 13 weeks ended June 12.  Also, slack European cocoa demand is bearish for prices after the European Cocoa Association reported last Wednesday that European Q2 cocoa grindings fell -2.5% q/q to 364,081 MT.  On a global basis, however, Barry Callebaut, the world's leading manufacturer of chocolate and cocoa products, reported that its chocolate sales grew +9.1% in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2021/22 ended May 31.

Signs of abundant cocoa supplies are bearish for prices after ICE cocoa inventories on June 9 rose to a 10-1/2 month high of 5.817 mln bags.

In a bullish factor, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on June 1 said that weather conditions and disease are negatively affecting cocoa production this year.  Also, trade disruptions and high freight rates are impacting the cocoa and fertilizer trade.  ICCO said the shortage of fertilizers on cocoa farms would likely hurt cocoa bean crop quantity, quality, and size next year.

A decline in cocoa supplies from Nigeria, the world's fourth-largest cocoa producer, was supportive of cocoa prices after data released July 4 showed that Nigeria's May cocoa exports fell -46% y/y to 12,497 MT.

On Feb 28, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projected that global 2021/22 cocoa production would fall -by 5.2% y/y to 4.955 MMT from a record 5.226 MMT in 2020/21.  ICCO also estimates the global 2021/22 cocoa market will fall into a deficit of -181,000 MT from a surplus of +215,000 in 2020/21.
 

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