Wheat Markets Mixed into Week’s End

Open interest data confirmed net new buying with 6,186 contracts added yesterday. So far wheats are trading mixed with MPLS another 7 to 16 cents higher. KC is also in the black so far this morning, though SRW is fading with 3 to 5 cent weakness. 

Wheat was limit up at times yesterday. Spring wheat futures went home at their limited 60 cent gains through March ’23. Chicago wheat closed with 62 1/2 to 65 3/4 cent gains on the day. KC went home 63 1/2 to 69 1/2 cents higher. USDA raised the old crop cash price for wheat by a dime to $7.70/bu, with new crop at $10.75. 

USDA cut projected old crop ending stocsk by 23 mbu to 655, compared to the trade average guess of 685. New crop wheat production was estimated at 1.729 bbu, with 590 HRW, 354 SRW, and 230 white winter. That implies a 555 mbu other spring and durum crop. New crop wheat carryout is seen at 619 mbu, compared to the 663 mbu average trade guess. 

Globally, USDA set Ukrainian wheat production as 21.5 MMT. That is down 11.5 MMT or 35% from their old crop output. Total world production is figured 4.46 MMT lighter yr/yr as 774.8 MMT. Argentina is down 2 MMT, Australian wheat output is projected 6 MMT lighter, Canada is figured 11 MMT higher, USDA sees 2 MMT lighter yr/yr in the EU, while Russia is up 5 MMT to 80 MMT. Global wheat carryout was figured as 279.72 MMT for old crop and 267.02 MMT for new crop. 

Cash SRW Wheat  was $11.18 on Thursday, up 65 1/8 cents,

Jul  SRW Wheat  closed at $11.78 3/4, up 65 3/4 cents, currently down 3 1/4 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $12.21 on Thursday, up 67 1/2 cents,

Jul  HRW Wheat  closed at $12.70, up 69 1/2 cents, currently up 3 3/4 cents

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $13.11 3/4, up 60 cents, currently up 16 cents