So Mixed for Monday Morning

Monday’s soy trading is starting out mostly lower, though soymeal is up $1.60 to $2. Beans and oil are trading red ahead of the day session. Front month soybeans closed 25 1/4 to 43 1/2 cents higher on report day. November 2023 futures set a life of contract high of $13.90 3/4. Nearby May was still 79 cents below the Russian invasion peak. The USDA cash average soybean price for the year was UNCH at $13.25/bu. Soymeal futures closed the day $7.70 to $8.20/ton in the black. The cash average price for soymeal was also UNCH at $420/ton, though BO was 2 cents higher to 70 cents/lb. Soy oil futures also gained triple digits with 175 to 210 point gains.  

Monthly WASDE data showed USDA raised soybean exports by 25 mbu to 2.115 billion. That is now just 100 mbu below their crush, which was UNCH from March. Some minor changes to seed and residual left stocks a net 25 mbu tighter to 260 mbu. 

Global soy trade was estimated 3.3 MMT lower. That came via a 2.75 MMT cut from Brazilian exports and a 3 MMT cut to Chinese imports (to 91 MMT). Brazil is forecasted to produce 125 MMT and ship 82.75 MMT. The U.S. share increased by 1.2% points to 37%. Global bean stocks were ultimately 380k MT lighter to 89.58 MMT. The trade had expected a cut to 88.5 MMT but prices rallied anyway. 

The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money firms extended their net long by 7,382 contracts through the week that ended 4/5. That left the group 163,655 contracts net long. The commercials were closing short hedges, with a 6,907 contract weaker net short wk/wk. The funds were 596 contracts more net long to 100,544 contracts in soymeal. For BO, managed money was reported 76,750 contracts net long, or a 1,851 reduction wk/wk. 

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $16.89, up 43 1/2 cents, currently down 8 3/4 cents

Nearby Cash  was $16.26 7/8 on Friday, up 41 3/8 cents,

Jul 22 Soybeans  closed at $16.68, up 41 cents, currently down 5 1/2 cents

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.95 1/2, up 29 1/4 cents, currently down 3 3/4 cents

New Crop Cash  was $14.50 ¾ on Friday, up 30 1/8 cents,