Soy Market Drops on Thursday

Soybean futures closed near the day’s lows on Thursday with 14 1/4 to 18 cent losses in the front months. Soymeal also faded on Thursday and closed mixed. May meal was up 80 cents, while the other nearbys gave back 40 cents to $2.30/ton. Soybean oil futures pulled back with 50 point to 168 point losses. 

Going into next Thursday’s NASS reports, the trade is looking to see 1.888 bbu of soybeans were counted on March 1. That would be up from 1.562 bbu last season and carries a +/- range of 433 mbu from the high estimate to the lowest estimate. As for new crop acreage, also to be released next Thursday, the trade is looking to see between 86 and 92.2m acres of soybeans. The average pre-trade estimate is 88.9m acres compared to 87.2m planted in 2021. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report had old crop soybean sales at 412,213 MT from the week that ended 3/17. That was below the range of pre-report estimates and was a MY low. New crop business was a net 13k MT cancelation, compared to the between 300k and 800k MT expected sales. 

For the products, USDA reported soybean oil bookings were a net cancelation of 1,986 MT with no 22/23 sales reported. For meal, 302,865 MT were sold according to USDA’s weekly data. That was split 260.7k MT for 21/22 delivery and 42.2k MT for 22/23. 

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates Argentina’s soybean output at 42 MMT, even with their prior figure. Their report mentioned the late season rains did more to slow harvest and logistics than improving conditions. 

Indonesia’s Economic Affairs Coordinating Minister said palm oil blending should reach 23% by the end of 2025 as the nation works towards B30 biodiesel. Current blending mandates call for 11%. The Vice Chairman of Indonesia Biofuel Producer Association calculates an approximate 17% pull from total palm oil output to achieve the B30 blends in 2022. 

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $17.00 3/4, down 18 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $16.47 3/4, down 16 3/4 cents,

Jul 22 Soybeans  closed at $16.82 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.93, down 15 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $14.43 1/8, down 14 5/8 cents,