Corn Market Red after USDA

Corn markets were down double digits going into the report and after initially spiking to just 3 cent losses the market is back to 12 to 17 cents lower for midday. USDA set the average cash price for the marketing year as $5.65, with a 20 cent boost from Jan. The USDA also raised sorghum’s expected cash price by 35 cents to $5.80.  

Weekly ethanol production was up 31k bpd to 1.028 million according to the weekly EIA data. Stocks were up by 338k barrels to 25.271 million. 

USDA saw a 100 mbu trim to U.S. stocks, now forecasted as 1.440 bbu. That was a tighter cut than the average trade guess, but was within the range of expectations. Corn exports were raised by 100 mbu with a 25 mbu boost to ethanol – now seen totaling 2.5 bbu and 5.35 bbu respectively. 

Despite the increase to US shipments, USDA trimmed the global trade by 3.77 MMT. That boosted the U.S. market share by 1.5% points to 31.7%. Losing on exports was the Ukraine, with a 6 MMT drop to 27.5 MMT. Global corn supplies were estimated at 300.97 MMT, compared to 302.22 MMT last month and 299.5 MMT expected.  

Brazil’s corn production was estimated at 114 MMT, which was UNCH from Feb. THE trade was looking for between 110 and 1116 MMT, with a 112.6 MTM average estimate. In Argentina, USDA trimmed off 1 MMT for a 53 MMT crop. That was above the average estimate going in. 

May 22 Corn  is at $7.43, down 10 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $7.11 5/8, down 9 3/8 cents,

Jul 22 Corn  is at $7.16, down 10 cents,

Dec 22 Corn  is at $6.39 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash   is at $6.29 5/8, down 5 3/4 cents,