Soy Rally Continues through Tuesday

Front month soy futures continued their march higher through the first trading day of the new month. Front month soybeans were 2.7% to 3.25% higher on the day, with 40-50 cent gains. March contracts closed above the $17/bu mark. Front month soymeal futures ended the day 1.7% to 1.9% higher going home above $450/ton. BO prices ended the day on 4.9% gains to 5.4% gains – setting record prices above 76 cents/lb. 

The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView was quoted at 48 1/2 cents under spot. That is an 8 cent firmer basis bid compared to yesterday – but compares to -38 cents on March 1 last year. In the ECB basis is seen at -27 1/4 cents, compared to cmdtyView data for the WCB at -60 3/4 cents. For new crop, cmdtyView has basis quoted at 47 cents under for November. 

USDA reported a private export sale this morning for 264k MT of new crop beans to China. 

NASS’s monthly soy crush data showed 194.3 mbu of beans were processed in January. That was within the expected range but above the average pre-report estimate of 193.7 mbu. That crush yielded 4.23m tons of soymeal and 2.28b lbs of soy oil. NASS reported soybean oil stocks at 2.5b lbs, just above the pre-report estimate. 

USDA’s Ag Attache reduced Argentinian soy output to 41 MMT compared to the official 45 MMT figure. Imports were also trimmed, citing Paraguay output reductions, to 2.2 MMT. Total supply was reported at 54.188 MMT. That compares to the WAOB’s official 56.05 MMT and last years 53.09 MMT. Exports were trimmed 700k leaving but with a lighter than official domestic consumption figure, carryout was left at 6.188 MMT – compared to USDA’s 5.7 (local). 

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $17.05 1/2, up 61 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $16.41 1/2, up 53 3/4 cents,

May 22 Soybeans  closed at $16.90, up 53 1/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.77, up 41 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  was $14.28 7/8, up 41 1/4 cents,