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We wrote a 1st half 2026 Grain and Livestock outlook. Sign up through the above link or the QR code down below.
February Lean Hogs opened higher, made the session low at 84.275, rallied to the high by late morning at 86.50 and it consolidated the rest of the session and settled near the high at 86.15. It opened above the rising 21-DMA now at 84.10, rallied past short-term moving average resistance and then the key level at 85.325, taking out the declining 100-DMA now at 85.80 and finally pushing past the December 23rd high at 86.225 before settling just below it. It was a strong start to the 1st full week of the new year after a weak opening day to the new year on Friday. This is in my opinion, is a strong rejection of the weakness shown on Friday as price broke down to test the 21-DMA for the first time. This put futures back into the upper end of the recent trading range along with a new high for the up move in Hogs. With the holiday season over, optimistic traders took over market, expecting cash to rebound after a thinly traded holiday period. Slaughter was down the past 2 weeks from last year indicating tighter supplies in my opinion and the cutout bounced on Friday and Monday morning in response. This put expectations that this could continue going forward as retailers restock their coolers after the holidays. Plus, Cattle futures followed through higher on Monday after breaking out of their trading ranges on Friday. This added fuel to the fire as Hogs are much cheaper and could have more room to run if the bullish posture persists. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a test of resistance at 87.10. Resistance then comes in at 88.325. A failure from the declining 100-DMA could see price test support at 85.325. Support then comes in at the rising 21-DMA.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 94.93 as of 01/02/2026.
The Lean Hog Index decreased and is at 81.85 as of 12/31/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 498,000, which is above last week’s 450,000 and last year’s 445,608.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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