Are Wall Street Analysts Predicting Moderna Stock Will Climb or Sink?

Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is a biotechnology company focused on developing medicines and vaccines using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Valued at a market cap of $18.4 billion, Moderna is best known for its global impact during the COVID-19 pandemic with its vaccine, Spikevax, and has since expanded its commercial portfolio with various other vaccines and medicines. 

Moderna has staged a remarkable comeback, emerging as one of biotech's biggest winners over the past year. Shares of Moderna have rallied 106.2% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 22.2%. Moreover, on a YTD basis, the stock is up 93.3%, compared to SPX’s 13% rise.

The rally has also eclipsed the broader biotechnology space, with MRNA vastly outperforming the iShares Biotechnology ETF’s (IBB) 40.5% rise over the past 52 weeks and 12.7% uptick on a YTD basis. 

On July 31, Moderna delivered a better-than-expected second quarter fueled by stronger international COVID-19 vaccine sales and partnership revenue. The company generated $145 million in revenue, well above the consensus estimate of $103 million, and reported a smaller-than-expected net loss of $1.97 per share while continuing to reduce costs, with R&D spending falling 7% year over year. 

Despite the earnings beat, MRNA shares dropped 5.4% following the report, as investors remained cautious about the company's commercial outlook and execution risks across its late-stage pipeline.

The spotlight has now shifted to the FDA's August 5 decision on Moderna's mRNA-based seasonal flu vaccine. A green light would make it the first mRNA influenza vaccine approved in the U.S., marking a pivotal milestone for the company as it seeks to validate its mRNA platform beyond COVID-19 and establish a broader respiratory vaccine franchise.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect MRNA’s loss per share to improve 16.7% year over year to $6.05. The company’s earnings surprise history is promising. It topped or matched the consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters. 

Among the 23 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold,” which is based on two “Strong Buy,” 18 “Hold,” one "Moderate Sell,” and two "Strong Sell” ratings.

The configuration has remained fairly stable over the past three months. 

On July 7, RBC Capital raised its price target on Moderna from $38 to $45 while maintaining a "Sector Perform" rating. The firm cited improving sentiment across the biotech sector, driven by encouraging clinical data, a more flexible FDA regulatory environment, expectations for a strong second-quarter earnings season, and continued merger and acquisition activity.

MRNA has already exceeded Wall Street's average price target of $52.05, but the highest target on the Street of $135 still suggests a substantial 136.9% upside from current price levels.