Cattle Markets Start Week on a Sour Note

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The cattle markets opened higher and rallied to their respective highs early in the trading session on Monday as traders paused the short-covering rally the markets had to end November on an upswing. January Live Cattle made its high at 219.20 and then broke down to the low at 214.575. It consolidated mostly in the lower end of the trading range and settled at 215.925. The high and low were contained within Friday’s trading range forming an inside candlestick. The early price action tested resistance at the 200-DMA now at 218.275 and the key level at 218.625. The breakdown took price down to support at 214.325 and settlement was above the key level at 215.60. January Feeder Cattle rallied past Friday’s high on the open to the Monday high at 325.50 and then broke down to the low at 319.525. It drifted the rest of the session and settled in the lower end of the trading range at 321.075. The early rally couldn’t even approach resistance at 326.875, quickly breaking down as the Feeder Index continued to break down leaving futures above the index and traders didn’t seem to like that as futures have been below the index for some time. The breakdown took price down to support at 319.45 and it held leading to a bounce that saw it settle above another key level at 321.00. The inability to continue the rally puts the cattle markets in danger of retesting the lows they made last week. A follow through to the downside on Tuesday could be a downer as more movement southward could indicate another lower high and embolden bearish traders to take out last week’s lows to continue the down trend. A breakdown would confirm the rally was just month end profit taking and the down trend continuing. The rally on Friday did lead to some stronger trading in the cash market where we saw the end of the week bring cash trades as high as 220.50 on a live basis as the packer scrambled to buy cattle at the end of the shortened week. We are in the Christmas Holiday buying season and the cutout saw a nice jump in price after working lower at the last week. If this continues the packer will be in a good position and if futures can stabilize, we could see cash work higher into the end of the year as wintry weather could force the packer hand as cattle performance weakens. We’ll see! If Live Cattle can hold settlement, we could see a retest of the Monday high. Resistance then comes in at 220.05. A breakdown below 215.60 could see price retest support at 214.325. Support the n comes in at 210.975. If Feeder Cattle holds settlement, it could retest the Monday high. Resistance then comes in at 326.875. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at the rising 200-DMA now at 318.425. Support then comes in at 314.20.

The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 319.70 as of 11/28/2025. 

Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts jumped 2.07 to 368.89 and select surged 6.83 to 357.88. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 11.01 and the load count was 9393.

Monday’s estimated slaughter is 115,000, which is below last week’s 120,000 and below last year’s 116,388. 

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states So far for Monday, negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand in all feeding regions. The last established market in Kansas was last week at 220.00. The last established market in Nebraska was last week with live purchases at mostly 210.00 and dressed purchases at 330.00. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was last week with live purchases from mostly 208.00-210.00 and dressed purchases from 328.00-330.00. Last week’s market in the Texas Panhandle was from 215.00-220.00.

The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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