Wheat Analysis & Targets

Wheat Analysis & Targets

(ZWZ25) (ZWH26) 

There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.

The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart.

The second is Fibonacci retracements.

Here are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

This is the short version.

A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.

A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.

A 61.8%  level can send the market 61.8% of where it just can from and cause wide swings keeping the market in a trading range.

A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.

The latest rally in December Wheat could not get above 38.2% at 557.00 to keep the Intermediate trend negative, but did hit the bottom of our target area at the 544.00 major Gann square. The market retraced 38.2% at 530.00 and the next rally hit our short term target of 78.6% at 549.00. We know following the ONE44 78.6% rule that this can be the end of the current up move.

This is the update from 11/20/25,

Wheat

This will be the last update for December.

From last week,

Even with the short term trend turning positive we still have to watch the longer term retracements above and getting that close to a 38.2% level (557.00) can send the market back to test the low. We will be watching 38.2% back to the low to see if the short term trend can stay positive.

The setback from the 554.00 major Gann square and 38.2% at 557.00 hit the short term target of 38.2% back to the 10/14/25 at 531.00. It had one close below it and then right back above. The rest of the week sat on it and if this is all it can setback from a 38.2% (557.00) of a much bigger range it is a very good sign, so this will be the key level for the week.

Use 531.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 11/6/25 high at 549.00. 

This week's high hit 78.6% at 549.00, failing to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the end of the rally per the ONE44 78.6% rule. So far the setback is 20 cents and back below the 531.00 (38.2%) swing point for the week, this will again be the key level for the week. 

Use 531.00 as the swing point for the week again.

Above it, getting right back above it keeps the short term trend positive and a new high can follow. It will still have to get through the 554.00 major Gann  square and 38.2% at 557.

00 to turn the Intermediate trend positive, this is the short term target. The longer term target is the 581.25 major Gann square. The long term target is 38.2% back to the contract high at 598.00, this is also the long term swing point.

Below it, turns the short term trend negative and the short term target is 61.8% back to the 10/14/25 low at 516.25. The longer term target area is 78.6% of the same move at 505.50 and the 499.75 major Gann square.

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.

You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

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