Should You Buy the Post-Earnings Pop in Affirm Stock?

With earnings season now entering its final stretch, the latest company to woo Wall Street with its performance is  “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) company Affirm Holdings (AFRM). The fintech firm unveiled its fiscal 2026 first-quarter results on Nov. 6 after the closing bell, and the investors clearly loved what they saw as shares jumped more than 11.61% the very next trading session. 

Investors were encouraged by strong top and bottom-line figures, which not only crushed Street expectations but also showed meaningful improvement from a year ago. In fact, confidence was further strengthened as Affirm expanded its partnerships, including new agreements with New York Life and Amazon (AMZN). It also lifted its gross merchandise volume (GMV) forecast for the entire year.

So, with optimism running high and momentum on its side, is this an opportune time to scoop up the shares of this fintech player? 

About Affirm Stock

San Francisco-based Affirm is a financial technology company shaking up how people pay. Instead of credit cards loaded with hidden fees and confusing interest rates, Affirm offers simple BNPL plans that let shoppers split their purchases into easy installments. When a customer checks out online or in-store, Affirm pays the merchant the full amount upfront and gives the shopper a loan to repay over time.

The company earns its revenue from merchant fees and interest on some longer-term plans, while 0% interest offers are funded by the merchants who use Affirm to boost sales. Founded in 2012, Affirm was one of the earliest BNPL startups. 

Fast-forward to today, and the company sits at a market capitalization of almost $24 billion, with Wall Street rewarding its strong revenue growth, strategic partnerships, and improving financials. The stock has rallied by about 36% over the past year and recorded an additional 29% gain in 2025. The momentum has only accelerated in recent months. In just the last six months alone, AFRM has surged an impressive 46.5%, leaving the broader S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) softer 17.1% return far behind.

Inside Affirm’s Q1 Earnings Results

For the fiscal 2026 first quarter earnings, which ended on Sept. 30, 2025, the company showcased a major turnaround, with year-over-year (YOY) improvements across its main financial metrics. Revenue for the quarter came in at $933.3 million, up an impressive 34% YOY and easily ahead of expectations of $885 million, a clear sign that demand for Affirm’s BNPL services remains strong.

GMV jumped 42% annually to $10.8 billion, helped by impressive momentum in the company’s direct-to-consumer business. "Setting another highest-ever GMV record in a quarter with relatively few shopping holidays showcases the consistency of Team Affirm," CEO Max Levchin noted in the shareholder letter.

The company’s Card business was another standout. Card GMV soared a stunning 135% YOY, while active cardholders grew by 500,000 from the previous quarter to reach 2.8 million. Overall, Affirm’s active consumer base swelled 24% to 24.1 million, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of accelerating YOY growth. Meanwhile, active merchants rose 30% to 419,000 as of September 30, with the growth rate speeding up 6 percentage points from the prior quarter.

Financial partnerships are paying off as well. Affirm’s expanded deal with New York Life includes a $750 million forward-flow loan purchase, supporting up to $1.75 billion in annual consumer financing through 2026. The company also secured a five-year extension of its U.S. partnership with Amazon, through January 2031, a significant endorsement from one of its largest merchant partners.

On the earnings front, the company reported a profit of $0.23 per share, a sharp swing from the year-ago quarter’s loss of $0.31 per share, and also significantly ahead of Wall Street’s expected profit of $0.11 per share. Liquidity remained strong by the end of the first quarter with roughly $2.2 billion in cash, equivalents, and securities available for sale, against $1.1 billion in convertible debt.

To top it off, the company raised guidance. Affirm now expects more than $47.5 billion in GMV for fiscal 2026, up from the prior projection of more than $46 billion, and lifted its adjusted operating margin outlook to above 27.1%, versus the earlier target of more than 26.1%.

What Do Analysts Expect for Affirm Stock?

After the results hit the market, analysts weighed in with mixed reactions. Bank of America Securities’ analyst Jason Kupferberg stuck with his “Buy” rating and even raised his price target from $94 to $98, citing strong quarterly performance and optimistic future guidance. Morgan Stanley’s James Faucette, however, kept an “Equal Weight” rating and trimmed his target from $90 to $83, suggesting the post-earnings rally may have stretched valuations a bit.

Overall, Wall Street’s mood around Affirm is upbeat. Analysts collectively give the stock a “Moderate Buy” rating, showing confidence in its growth story. Out of 27 analysts, 18 call it a “Strong Buy,” one sits in the “Moderate Buy” camp, and eight prefer to “Hold.” The average price target lands at $95.18, pointing to 20% upside from current levels. And for the most bullish voices on the Street, the top target of $115 leaves room for a stunning 45% rally from here.