Ahead of SpaceX Earnings, Here's What Barchart Data Says Comes Next for SPCX Stock

SpaceX (SPCX) faces a pivotal week as the company prepares to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on Aug. 4, followed immediately by a massive share lockup expiration on Aug. 6. 

Heading into the quarterly print, SPCX shares are hovering around $109, representing a decline of about 50% from its year-to-date high and about 19% from its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135. 

What Percentage of SpaceX Float Is Sold Short?

Short interest in SpaceX has increased rather dramatically, reaching 219.3 million shares as of July 29, representing about 34% of the tradable float, which makes it the most shorted large public firm in the U.S.

The bearish position is valued at roughly $24.6 billion, exceeding the short interest against Tesla (TSLA), and bears have accumulated some $7.3 billion in mark-to-market gains since SPCX started trading.

The cost of borrowing shares to maintain short positions has risen meaningfully, though analysts expect this friction to ease after next week's events.

Near-Term Risk Tied to Owning SpaceX Stock

The lockup expiration on Aug. 6 represents perhaps the most significant near-term risk, with about 911.5 million shares becoming eligible for sale. 

This would more than double the current float of roughly 640 million shares, taking the proportion of freely tradable shares from about 5% to as much as 12% of total shares outstanding. 

At current prices, this represents close to $100 billion worth of stock that could potentially enter the market, and this is merely the first of eight planned unlock tranches extending through January 2027.

What to Expect From SpaceX’s Earnings?

Consensus estimates for SpaceX’s current quarter stand at $6.75 billion for revenue, about $2 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and an adjusted loss of roughly $0.26 per share. 

Consumer Starlink subscribers are estimated at 12 million with average monthly revenue per user near $65.50. 

Heading into the earnings release, Morgan Stanley maintains an “Overweight” rating on SPCX stock with a $300 price target, framing the current period as the firm’s “Max Q” moment of maximum stress. 

Its analysts’ sum-of-the-parts analysis values Space at $8, Connectivity at $128, X and Grok at $12, and Enterprise AI at $152 per share. 

In fact, at $100, they argued, SpaceX stock would trade at 18 times fiscal 2028 EV-to-EBIT with essentially zero value assigned to the artificial intelligence (AI) opportunity, making it cheaper than Walmart (WMT) on forward earnings. 

However, more than two-thirds of recent investor meetings conducted by the firm indicated bearish views on SPCX through year-end.

Where Options Data Suggests SPCX Shares Are Headed

The fundamental picture reveals a company still deeply unprofitable, having lost nearly $5 billion in 2025 on $18.7 billion in sales, with a first-quarter 2026 loss of about $4.28 billion. 

Starlink remains the sole profitable segment, generating $1.19 billion in operating profit on $3.26 billion in Q1 revenue, while the AI segment posted a $2.47 billion operating loss. 

Capital expenditure projections are staggering, expected to grow from nearly $49 billion this year to $118 billion by 2028, with total debt projected to exceed $218 billion in the same timeframe.

Technical indicators also remain uniformly bearish, with the stock trading below its 20-day moving average (MA) and within a descending channel pattern. 

The options market is pricing a 14-15% implied move in either direction around the earnings event. 

However, Wall Street analysts disagree. The consensus rating on SpaceX shares sits at “Moderate Buy” currently, with the mean price target of $228 indicating significant upside potential from here.

A successful Starship Flight 14 scheduled for late August or early September, which will attempt to catch the upper stage for the first time, represents the most concrete upside catalyst identified by analysts beyond the earnings print itself.

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