Hogs Bounce Back

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October Lean Hogs opened unchanged, made its way to the low at 90.60 and then rallied to the high at 91.975. It consolidated the near the high the rest of the session and settled at 91.775. The low tested support at the flattening 13-DMA now at 90.65 and was just above the key level at 90.40. Price was able to recover and rally past the Friday high, but was unable to overcome the Thursday breakdown candle high, stalling just below the 92.125 high. This keeps price above the key level (90.40), but well below the highs of the trading range the October contract is in from 93.275 to 87.925. It is the continued up and down movement of the cutout driving price, with the recent resurgence of the cutout supporting the price action. The cash market is steady as the cutouts has strengthened which is also helping to stabilize the futures market. There is also some China news out there as during the session the administration said nothing has been decided about any extension of the deadline on Chinese tariffs but reports have surfaced after the close that the deadline has been extended for 90-days. This could give more support to futures as the Chinese were our biggest buyer of pork on the last report. It will take a breakout above the high or breakdown below the low to give a more directional approach to hogs. Most recent moves have established a high or low but went right back into the range. The breakout needs to be sustained and not dragged back to the range. We’ll see!... If price can take out the Monday high, we could see price re-test resistance 92.375. Resistance is nearby at the rising 200-DMA now at 92.775. A failure from settlement could see price revisit support at the 13-DMA and then the key level at 90.40. Support then comes in at 88.325 and then the August 1^st low. 

The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 116.87 as of 08/08/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 110.25 as of 08/07/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 482,000, which is above last week’s 425,000 and below last year’s 484,430.

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Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

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