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Cattle futures fell to new lows for the recent down move with no retracement in front of the weekend. Only August Feeders, which is about to lose its status as the lead contract based on volume held Thursday’s low. The continued destruction of the futures price, the sinking cutout and high temperatures kept the pressure on cash price which saw price trade as low as 230.00 on the mandatory report. The packer has knocked cash prices down from last week’s 248.01 steer average to a 230.00 low. Dressed prices also suffered big declines, getting down to 365.00 after starting the week at 385.00 which was the low end of the prior week’s range. Constant pressure from the government about high beef prices seems to have affected traders’ attitudes towards cattle futures and the desire to be long. With the President saying he got Walmart and other retailers to lower beef prices to consumers which is his often-stated goal, has limited traders desire to hold long positions in my opinion as why buy futures when the President could undermine my position with a negative quote about beef prices. Any strong rally could be destroyed with a tweet. Get near the all-time highs and whammo…. The President whines about high prices. Futures crash… The fundamentals don’t matter only the politics… Markets should be left to their own devices… High prices cure high prices, and low prices cure low prices. “Good” intentions by the President or government usually leads to unintended consequences and in this case could prolong the rebuilding of the herd. Why expand if prices are going lower? Why take the risk? Let the market take its natural course and the ship would get righted on its own terms, in my opinion. Remember, in my opinion, cattle prices have been kept artificially low through the years with the packer dominating the market. Any excuse has been used to keep cattle prices under wraps, and this rally could lead to us finally finding where cattle prices should be if left to their own devices. So, stay out of the way and let the market do its thing… Because, in my opinion, this noise just artificially puts the packer back in control and with the aging producer limits the desire to increase cattle numbers. And, with the hot and dry weather still around and little grass, water and high hay prices… what incentive is there for the producer to take on risk even as he has made good money during this run, in my opinion. We’ll see!... August Feeder Cattle opened higher and made an early high before succumbing to weakness in the fat cattle to breakdown to the low at 344.575. This was a test of support at 344.675 and price reversed and rallied to the session high at 348.125. A late pullback took price lower, and it settled at 345.95. It formed an inside candlestick. If settlement holds, it could revisit the Friday high. Resistance then comes in at 350.20. A failure from settlement could see price revisit the Friday low. Support then comes in at 341.05. October Live Cattle is now the lead contract as its volume has exceeded the volume of the August contract. It opened higher and traded to the high at 223.45. The rally stalled just above the key level at 223.275. Price reversed and broke down to the low at 220.50. The low was just above support at 220.05 and the market drifted the rest of the session, settling just above the low at 220.70. If price can hold settlement, it could test resistance 223.275. Resistance then comes in at 224.55. A failure from the low could see price test support at 218.625. Support then comes in at 217.75.
The Feeder Cattle Index decreased and is at 364.03 as of 07/16/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 0.59 to 386.48 and select decreased 1.56 to 365.87. The choice/ select spread widened and is at 20.61 and the load count was 102.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 89,000, which is below last week’s 99,000 and last year’s 100,957. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 3,000 which is above last week’s zero and below last year’s 4,230. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 525,000, which is below last week’s 529,000 and last year’s 567,470.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been limited on light to moderate demand in Kansas. There have been a few live purchases at 235.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in Kansas was Thursday from 237.00-238.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt. There have been a few live purchases from 230.00-235.00 and a few dressed purchases from 365.00-370.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test in the Western Cornbelt was live purchases Thursday from 233.00-240.00 and dressed purchases last week at 393.00. Negotiated cash trade has been mostly inactive on light demand in Nebraska. The last established market test in Nebraska was Wednesday with live purchases from 238.00-240.00, mostly 240.00, and dressed purchases from 375.00-380.00, mostly 380.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 230.00 – 245.00 and from 365.00 – 385.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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