ASML Keeps Raising Its Sales Forecast. Here's What Comes Next for ASML Stock.

ASML Holding (ASML) is in focus on July 15 after the world’s leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer reported a blockbuster Q2 and raised its full-year guidance for the second time. Management now expects AI-driven demand to boost sales to at least €43 billion this year, notably above consensus estimates set at about €38 billion.

ASML shares have been a rewarding investment in 2026, currently up more than 50% versus the start of this year. 

Options Data Suggests Downside Ahead for ASML Stock

Despite a solid Q2 print and impressive future outlook, the derivatives market recommends caution in playing ASML stock at current levels. 

According to Barchart, the put-to-call ratio on ASML options contracts expiring mid-October sits at 5.13x currently, indicating a very strong bearish skew. 

And the lower price on those contracts is set at about $1,405, signaling massive potential downside of more than 20% from here. 

Much of the options market view may be premised on valuation concerns. At roughly 47x forward earnings, ASML appears to have already priced in the expected full-year growth. 

Crucially, that valuation multiple makes it more expensive to own than market leaders, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron (MU). 

What Else Could Weigh on ASML Shares in 2026?

Beyond valuation and bearish options data, mounting geopolitical headwinds serve as an incentive for investors to lock in profits. 

Despite outstanding global momentum, China remains a crucial market for ASML, accounting for about 20% of its total sales.

However, ongoing pressure from US and EU regulators to tighten China’s access to advanced Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) systems on top of existing restrictions on Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) exports remains a threat to this revenue stream. 

Any sudden escalation in trade restrictions could abruptly curtail ASML’s shipments to the region, creating an asymmetric downside risk that its current, near-perfect share price doesn’t account for.

Wall Street Disagrees With Options Traders on ASML

On the flip side, investors should note that Wall Street remains bullish as ever on ASML shares for the remainder of 2026. 

The consensus rating on ASML sits at “Strong Buy,” with the mean price target of about $2,033 indicating potential upside of more than 15% from here.