One Month in and SpaceX Stock Is Down More Than 35% from Its Post-IPO Peak. How to Play SPCX Here.

A month ago, SpaceX Corporation (SPCX) arrived on the public markets with the kind of excitement few companies have ever generated. Investors rushed in, betting not just on rockets and satellites, but on Elon Musk’s vision of building the next great technology powerhouse. The stock wasted no time rewarding that optimism, soaring well above its IPO price within days and briefly cementing itself among the world’s most valuable companies.

But Wall Street has a habit of sobering up after the celebration.

Since peaking just days after its blockbuster debut, SpaceX stock has tumbled 38.5%, giving back much of its early gains. The pullback came despite a steady stream of headline-grabbing announcements, including a major artificial intelligence (AI)-related acquisition, its first bond offering, inclusion in key stock indexes, and bullish analyst initiations. In other words, the news flow stayed strong, but the stock stopped listening.

That shift reflects a familiar pattern. IPO excitement can push expectations sky-high, but eventually investors start asking tougher questions about valuation, execution, and whether ambitious promises can translate into real financial results.

Now that the initial IPO euphoria is in the rearview mirror, the conversation is beginning to shift. Instead of chasing the headlines, investors are now weighing the company’s fundamentals, valuation, and long-term growth prospects. So, has the recent sell-off created an attractive buying opportunity, or does SPCX still have more room to cool before it becomes compelling?

About SpaceX Stock

Founded in 2002, SpaceX has evolved from an ambitious rocket startup into one of the world’s most influential technology companies. Headquartered in Starbase, Texas, the company operates across several fast-growing industries, including space transportation, satellite connectivity, and AI. SpaceX is best known for its reusable Falcon rockets, Dragon spacecraft, and the next-generation Starship program, which are reshaping access to space.

Its Starlink unit provides high-speed satellite internet to consumers, businesses, and governments around the globe. Following its acquisition of xAI, SpaceX has also expanded deeper into AI, combining AI software with large-scale computing infrastructure. Together, these businesses have positioned SpaceX as a major player at the intersection of space, communications, and AI.

Just one month after its blockbuster IPO, SpaceX stock has lost much of its early momentum. Shares are down 13.8% over the past month, including a 7.13% decline in the last five trading sessions alone, recently touching a low of $136.78 – just above the company’s $135 IPO price.

Despite the sell-off, SpaceX still commands a market capitalization of $1.82 trillion, making it one of the 10 most valuable publicly traded companies in the United States. The recent pullback reflects a combination of fading post-IPO excitement, profit-taking after the stock's sharp initial rally, and growing investor caution over the company’s lofty valuation and substantial capital requirements, even as the broader market has continued to move higher.

What’s Been Driving SpaceX Stock Since Its Blockbuster Debut?

SpaceX’s first month as a public company has been a tale of soaring optimism followed by a reality check. The excitement started on June 12, when the company pulled off the largest IPO in history, raising about $75 billion. Shares were priced at $135 but opened at $150, while retail investors poured a record $118 million into the stock on day one alone. That buying frenzy helped push the company’s valuation above $2 trillion almost immediately.

The rally picked up even more steam after CEO Elon Musk said SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. That forecast gave investors another reason to dream big, even though the company generated about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and posted a net loss of $4.9 billion as it ramped up spending on AI and other long-term investments. Reaching Musk’s target would require revenue to grow more than 50-fold in just five years.

Momentum accelerated further after SpaceX announced its $60 billion acquisition of AI coding startup Anysphere, signaling ambitions well beyond rockets and satellites. The news helped propel the stock to an intraday high of $225.64 in mid-June.

But once the initial excitement faded, investors began locking in profits. Even announcements of a $20 billion bond offering to expand AI infrastructure, a major computing partnership with Reflection AI, inclusion in the FTSE Russell indexes and the Nasdaq-100, and bullish initiations from prominent brokerage firms were not enough to revive the rally.

Instead, the market shifted its focus to valuation. Critics argue the stock is already pricing in years of extraordinary growth that has yet to materialize, while concerns about future insider share sales have also weighed on sentiment. For now, SpaceX’s share price reflects a tug-of-war between investors betting on a transformational long-term story and those questioning whether the stock simply ran too far, too fast.

A Look at SpaceX’s Q1 Numbers and Outlook

In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, SpaceX reported revenue of $4.7 billion, up 15.4% year-over-year (YOY). The increase was largely driven by continued growth in its Starlink subscriber base and rising demand for AI-related offerings tied to X and Grok. However, its Space segment grew at a slower pace as launch schedules and the timing of certain government contracts weighed on results.

The company’s bottom line remained under pressure. SpaceX reported an operating loss of $1.94 billion and a net loss of $4.3 billion for the quarter. Still, adjusted EBITDA landed at $1.1 billion, suggesting the core business continues to generate healthy operating cash flow despite elevated investment levels.

Those investments are heavily concentrated in AI. During the quarter, SpaceX allocated $7.7 billion to its AI initiatives, far exceeding the $1.33 billion invested in its Connectivity segment and the $1.05 billion directed toward its Space business. To support these long-term ambitions, the company ended the quarter with $29.1 billion in long-term debt and approximately $15.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

Analysts covering SpaceX anticipate the company’s fiscal 2026 revenue to be somewhere near $38.9 billion and to rise to $72.4 billion in the next fiscal year. Fiscal 2026 losses are anticipated to be $0.67 per share, and then shrink by 194% YOY to earnings of $0.63 per share in fiscal 2027.

What’s Wall Street’s Take on SpaceX Now?

Wall Street remains broadly optimistic on SpaceX following its blockbuster IPO, a view that's hardly surprising considering 21 investment banks served as underwriters on the offering. Among the most bullish is Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale, who recently set a Street-high price target of $800 on SPCX shares while reiterating a “Strong Buy” rating. If the stock were to reach that level, SpaceX’s market cap would soar to roughly $10.5 trillion, making it the most valuable publicly traded company in history.

Gesuale’s bullish outlook is built on extraordinary growth expectations. He projects SpaceX's annual revenue to surge from an estimated $38.5 billion in 2026 to nearly $837 billion by 2031, while EBITDA is forecast to expand from $17.7 billion to an eye-popping $696 billion over the same period.

Overall, SPCX stock carries a “Moderate Buy” rating. Of the 31 analysts covering the stock, 21 are pounding the table on a “Strong Buy,” two have a “Moderate Buy,” seven are playing it safe with a “Hold,” and the remaining one is waving a cautious flag with a “Moderate Sell.”

At current levels, the average price target of $235.26 suggests that SPCX stock has rebound potential of 70.2%. Meanwhile, the Street’s highest price target of $800 implies SPCX could rally as much as 479%.