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August Lean Hogs opened higher and traded to the high at 100.25. The rally tested resistance at 100.075. The early excitement was about a strong Friday cutout that broke the 100.00 barrier, reaching a one-day cutout at 101.34. This wasn’t enough, however, to take the futures to higher levels. The market drifted within the opening 15-minute range unable to break out to the next level of resistance as traders were anxious over what the morning cutout would bring. The drifting lasted until indications that the cutout would be weaker put pressure on the futures price, which played into traders’ fears. The cutout did come out weaker but still held above the 100.00 level. This didn’t matter as traders feared the worst. This would be another failure above the 100.00 mark, and the cutout would break down again. More false hope the cutout was ready to establish some strength and move towards the 105.00 level. This fear, in my opinion pressured futures and it broke down the rest of the session to the low at 97.75. It settled just above the low at 98.10. The breakdown took price below support at 98.475, and it also tested the rising 13-DMA now at 97.775 holding just above it. The Friday cutout held some promise as the ham and belly were working higher as traders hoped. The morning cutout dashed the confidence as the belly pulled back from Friday’s rally. Could this be another failure of the belly to rally? The futures breakdown took price back to its recent lows, keeping price in a slightly upward lean but in a timid manner. We have a Bearish Engulfing candle with the futures breakdown which if not taken out could lead to lower prices. There is hope that the cutout could rebound as the afternoon cutout erased the morning decline and it ended up above 101.00 at 101.55, higher than Friday which is a good sign of strength in my opinion. We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price test support at 97.30. Support then comes in at 95.30. If price can take out resistance at 98.475, it could re-test resistance at 100.075. Resistance then comes in at 101.975.
The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 98.49 as of 07/10/2026.
The Lean Hog Index increased and is at 92.69 as of 07/09/2026.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 464,000, which is above last week’s 463,000 and below last year’s 466,705.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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