Reports indicate a good marketing year for soybean meal

I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.

The United States planted soybean acreage came in above most expectations in the June 30 acreage report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Soybean planted area for 2026 is estimated at 85.4 million acres, up 5 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 23 of the 29 estimating states. The estimates are based on data provided by respondents who were contacted between May 28 and June 19. Soybean acreage left to be planted for the U.S. was at 8.05 million, according to the report.

Market reaction has been positive in part because of the agency's Grain Stocks report released today that shows on-farm soybean stocks at 367 million bushels, which is down 11 percent from a year ago. In its Soybeans and Oil Crops - Market Outlook report dated June 16, the USDA Economic Research Service says that although its soybean supply and demand forecast for marketing year (MY) 2026/27 is unchanged, the soybean crush is raised this month by 20 million bushels to 2.65 billion bushels on strong demand for soybean products and strong crush margins. The report states that the higher soybean crush is offset by lower soybean exports.

I like the chart for August 2026 soybean meal presented below. This chart is building a base and with a bit of luck can reach the 200-day moving average or close to it, in my opinion. The stochastics on soybean are rising from oversold levels. Stochastics in the commodity market refer to a technical analysis tool that measures momentum by comparing a commodity's closing price to its recent price range, helping traders identify overbought or oversold conditions. This analysis can assist in making buy and sell decisions based on price movements.

This is bullish and should support higher prices, in my opinion.

Trade strategy is to buy August 2026 soybean meal at 302.50, good til cancelled (GTC). Risk the trade to 297.50 stop ($500 risk per contract). Profit objective is 312.50 ($1,000 profit) per contract, GTC. 

An option trade strategy is to buy August 2026 soybean meal 305/call for $5.00 or better, GTC, per contract. I like buying options right out of the money and watching them go into the money. These options expire July 24, 2026. This is plenty of time for soybean meal to go higher, in my opinion. 

200-day moving average represented by black horizontal line.

To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day. 

Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist 
Walsh Trading

Direct 312 878 2391 
Toll Free 800 556 9411
sdavis@walshtrading.com  
www.walshtrading.com

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