Hey traders,
During this time of the year its important to check some of the higher time frame charts and prepare for potential scenarios in 2025. I do this in regular Elliott Wave Yearly update for the last few years. In case you don't want to miss my views and elliott wave cycles on different markets such as FX, Gold, Silver, Btc, Sp500, I suggest to review the video below.
If you love the context, explore more at www.wavetraders.com
Grega
Key Insights
- Dollar Index and US Treasuries
- The Dollar Index is expected to experience potential reversal, indicating that US Treasuries may reach significant support levels in 2025.
- A strong upward movement in the Dollar Index is anticipated if Treasuries hit these support levels, suggesting a correlation between their performances.
- The outlook suggests that the Dollar Index may retest levels around 110-111 but is not expected to exceed the highs from 2022.
- Emerging Markets Potential
- A completed ABCDE triangle pattern in emerging markets suggests a potential bullish phase ahead.
- Historical patterns indicate that a strong push in emerging markets often coincides with a peak in the Dollar Index.
- Impact of Political Changes
- The return of a Republican administration, particularly under Trump, could lead to a reversal in the Dollar Index trend, affecting overall economic conditions.
- Past trends show that the Dollar Index tends to decline during Republican presidencies, which could influence stock prices and economic sentiment.
- Trump’s policies may prioritize a weaker Dollar to boost the economy, potentially affecting various markets.
- Elliott Wave on EUR and USD Index
- The Dollar Index exhibits a classic Elliott Wave pattern indicating upside can be limited
- The bullish sentiment seen in the Dollar suggests caution, as extreme bullishness could indicate a top and EURUSD bottom through COT data.
- Stock Market Dynamics
- The S&P 500 is expected to see further upside after corrective setback
- A correlation exists between the Dollar Index’s strength and stock performance, where a downturn in the Dollar may lead to a resurgence in stock prices.
- Monitoring investor sentiment through put/call ratios can provide insights into potential market reversals and investment opportunities.
- Gold and Commodities Outlook
- The gold-to-copper ratio serves as an economic indicator, with current patterns suggesting potential consolidation before upward movements.
- The correlation between oil prices and US inflation suggests that lower crude oil prices could help ease inflation, positively impacting the economy.
- Monitoring gold and silver prices indicates potential corrections but also opportunities for future gains once consolidation phases are completed.
- Cryptocurrency Trends
- Bitcoin’s recovery since 2022 shows potential for continued upside, but caution is advised as market dynamics may shift and big cycle home into late stages
- Investors should be cautious of entering the cryptocurrency market at this stage, as significant corrections could occur following the current upward trend. Dont be overinvested up here.
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