Fed’s Kashkari Hints at Further Modest Rate Cuts as Inflation Persists

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari signaled that further modest cuts to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate may be necessary in the coming quarters. Speaking at a conference in Buenos Aires, Kashkari emphasized that the Fed's future decisions would be closely tied to actual economic data, including inflation and labor market trends. While inflation in September was hotter than anticipated, a strong labor market, indicated by declining unemployment and steady hiring, has tempered expectations for larger cuts. Kashkari acknowledged that the Fed’s current stance remains restrictive but added that the degree of restrictiveness is still uncertain. Despite the robust jobs data, he indicated that inflation, though significantly reduced from its peak, remains slightly above the central bank’s target. This leaves room for gradual rate reductions over the coming months, with Kashkari suggesting a quarter-point reduction at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings in 2024. Market Overview:

• Neel Kashkari signals further modest rate cuts in coming quarters.
• Inflation remains above target, but the labor market remains strong.
• Fed expected to cut rates by a total of half a percentage point by year-end.

Key Points:

• Kashkari cites economic data as the driver for future Fed decisions.
• Investors lower expectations for a large rate cut in November.
• Labor market resilience reduces immediate concerns of a sharp economic slowdown.

Looking Ahead:

• Fed’s policy outlook remains dependent on incoming inflation and jobs data.
• Modest rate cuts are expected to continue, with quarter-point reductions likely in 2024.
• Economic indicators will guide future adjustments in monetary policy.

As the Federal Reserve charts its path forward, Kashkari’s remarks underscore a cautious but steady approach to rate reductions. His perspective that labor market conditions remain favorable, while inflation is still somewhat elevated, suggests the Fed is not rushing toward aggressive cuts. Investors have recalibrated their expectations, now predicting a more measured approach, with smaller, quarter-point reductions in the months ahead. The Fed’s focus will remain on balancing inflation control with sustaining the strong employment numbers seen in recent months. Looking ahead, the economic landscape will be shaped by how inflation responds to the Fed’s policy adjustments and how the labor market holds up. As the central bank edges closer to its year-end targets, its ability to navigate these dual challenges will be critical in determining the overall health of the U.S. economy. Investors, businesses, and policymakers alike will be watching closely as the Fed continues its gradual course of rate cuts.