Soybeans Collapsing on Production Hike

Soybeans are posting sharply 22 to 25 cent lower trade across most contracts as USDA hiked the US production total. Soymeal futures are down $6.60 per ton. Soy Oil futures are trading with losses of 99 points in the Sep contract at midday.

The US soybean production total was the bear in the room for the USDA, as yield was up 1.2 bpa to 53.2 bpa, and acreage was up 1 million planted acres at 87.1 million. That boosted production to a massive 4.589 bbu, up 154 mbu from last month.

Carryout for the old crop was left unchanged at 345 mbu. The same was not said for new crop and the large production total that raised the carryout by 125 mbu to 560 mbu. 

On the world stage, Argentina 2023/24 production was down 0.5 MMT to 49 MMT, as Brazil was left at 153 MMT. The new crop South American numbers were left alone but the world stocks total was up 6.5 MMT to 134.3 MMT, mainly due to the US.  

USDA reported an export sale announcement of 300,000 MT of soybeans this morning to unknown destinations, with 100,000 MT old crop sold and 200,000 MT sold for new crop. Inspections data from FGIS showed 326,546 MT (12 mbu) of soybeans shipped in the week of 8/8. That was 22.4% above last week but down 21.9% from a year ago. Marketing year shipments are at 43.36 MMT (1.594 bbu), a 15.3% drop from the same period last year.

Aug 24 Soybeans  are at $10.22, down 6 cents,

Nearby Cash  is at $9.49 1/1, down 24 1/4 cents,

Nov 24 Soybeans  are at $9.79, down 23 1/2 cents,

Jan 25 Soybeans  are at $9.96 1/2, down 22 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash  is at $9.22 1/4, down 23 3/4 cents,