Amazon’s AI Chief Predicts a Commercial Quantum Computer Will Be Usable Within 7 Years. Why This Matters.

Quantum computing has long been the technology that always seems to be 10 years away. Now, one of the most senior technology executives in the world says the wait is almost over.

Amazon's (AMZN) top artificial intelligence (AI) executive has put a firm timeline on when the world will see its first working quantum computer that businesses can use. And his answer may surprise investors who have been waiting for a clear signal on when to take this sector seriously.

Amazon reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $181.5 billion, up 17% year-over-year (YOY), driven in large part by Amazon Web Services (AWS) growing 28% YOY, its fastest pace in 15 quarters. The tech giant is clearly investing heavily in next-generation computing at scale.

What Amazon's AI Chief Said About Quantum Computing

Amazon Senior Vice President Peter DeSantis — the company's chief of artificial intelligence, silicon development, and quantum computing — recently told CNBC that the first commercially useful small-scale quantum computers are expected to arrive within the next five to seven years.

DeSantis said the growth after that initial breakthrough will look “a lot like Moore's Law,” the well-known principle that chips get roughly twice as powerful every two years. He expects quantum computers to follow a similar trajectory, tackling bigger and more complex problems over the years. 

Importantly, DeSantis also clarified a major misconception about what quantum computers do. Quantum computers are designed for a very specific set of problems that traditional computers struggle to solve. Chemistry simulations, materials science research, and complex molecular modeling are the kinds of tasks where quantum machines will shine first, said DeSantis.

Investors and businesses who expect quantum to replace existing cloud infrastructure are misreading the opportunity. The real value lies in solving problems that cannot be cracked with today's best supercomputers.

Where Amazon Stands in the Quantum Computing Race

Amazon is not the only company racing toward this goal, and the timelines among tech giants vary widely. According to CNBC, Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google has suggested that practical quantum applications could arrive in around five years, while Microsoft (MSFT) expects a commercially viable machine ready by 2029. Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang previously said that 15 years would be an optimistic estimate for useful quantum systems, although he later revised that position. 

DeSantis sits somewhere in the middle of these forecasts. But his comments carry weight because Amazon has serious skin in the game. The company launched the AWS Center for Quantum Computing in late 2019 and has been building toward this goal for several years.

In February 2025, Amazon unveiled a quantum chip called Ocelot. The chip is designed to tackle error correction, one of the hardest unsolved problems in quantum computing. Amazon says Ocelot could cut the overhead cost of fixing errors by as much as 90%, potentially shortening the overall path to a usable quantum computer. Amazon also entered a partnership with quantum startup QuEra in 2022 and expanded the partnership this month, with a target of building fault-tolerant quantum systems around 2028.

Not everyone inside Amazon is equally optimistic about speed, though. Oskar Painter, another key figure in Amazon's quantum program, reportedly estimates that commercial quantum workloads are likely a decade or further away. That's a notably more conservative view than what DeSantis has shared publicly.

Why This Matters for Investors and the Broader AI Picture

Amazon's quantum ambitions sit alongside the company's broader bet on custom chips and AI infrastructure. 

AWS now runs at a $150 billion annual revenue run rate, and Amazon's custom Trainium chips are already generating over $20 billion in annualized revenue. Notably, the company has $225 billion in revenue commitments tied to Trainium. 

Quantum computing could eventually add another leg to that story. For now, the technology remains in its early stages. But DeSantis' five-to-seven-year timeline gives investors something concrete to work with, even if internal Amazon researchers urge patience.

Quantum stocks like IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and D-Wave (QBTS) have seen sharp swings in recent years driven by executive comments from players like Amazon, Google, and Nvidia. When a company of Amazon's scale and infrastructure depth puts a real timeline on the table, markets pay attention. The first commercially useful quantum computer may still be years away. But according to Amazon's top AI executive, it is no longer a distant dream.

Is AMZN Stock Undervalued in June 2026?

Analysts tracking AMZN stock forecast revenue to increase from $717 billion in 2025 to $1.32 trillion in 2030. In this period, adjusted earnings are projected to expand from $7.17 per share to $18.33 per share.

If AMZN stock is priced at 30 times forward earnings, a level similar to the current multiple, it could return 125% over the next four years. 

Out of the 57 analysts covering Amazon stock, 49 recommend a “Strong Buy” rating, five recommend a “Moderate Buy,” and three recommend a “Hold” rating. The average AMZN stock price target of $316.04 represents potential upside of 31% from here.