Corn is trading a penny in the red in the active contracts, and fractionally weaker in the deferred 2025 contracts, ahead of the weekly Export sales report. May traded mostly higher overnight, with a 4 ½ cent range from -1 ¼ to +3 ¼ cents. Corn futures closed ~2 cents off their highs on a midweek bounce. Futures were up by 2 ½ to 5 ¼ cents across the front months, though May still has a net 10 cent loss for the week to date. Preliminary open interest dropped 13,855 contracts on short covering ahead of the index fund roll period (starts Friday).
Trade ideas for this morning’s USDA weekly Export Sales report have old crop corn at 800,000 to 1.4 MMT, with new crop zero to 200,000 MT.
According to EIA data, ethanol producers averaged 1.073 million barrels per day in the week ending 3/29. This marked the highest weekly output since the week of 2/23. Ethanol stocks stood at 26.416 million barrels, reflecting a 324,000-barrel increase for the week. Implied gasoline use was up, but still lags year ago. That lags is mostly due to improved average fuel economy.
USDA’s Ag Attache released the initial 2024/25 corn estimates for Brazil. They have initial area up by 500k HA to 22 million. Production is initially expected to be 129 MMT, with stocks finishing 2024/25 at 7.9 MMT. Their updated projection for old crop production was reduced 2 MMT to 122 MMT. CONAB is still down at 112.8 MMT.
Safras and Mercado reported Brazil’s 2nd crop corn was 99.6% planted as of 3/28.
May 24 Corn closed at $4.31 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents, currently down 1 cent
Nearby Cash was $4.12 5/8, up 4 3/4 cents,
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.45, up 4 cents, currently down 1 cent
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.71 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents, currently down 1 cent
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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