United Airlines Stock: Is UAL Outperforming the Industrial Sector?

With a market cap of $38.5 billion, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) is a major airline holding company that provides passenger and cargo air transportation services across the United States, Canada, the Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin American regions. Through its mainline and regional fleets, the company connects global destinations while also offering services such as ground handling, flight training, maintenance, and loyalty programs. 

Companies valued at $10 billion or more are generally considered “large-cap” stocks, and United Airlines fits this criterion perfectly. It distributes its services through its website, mobile app, travel agencies, and other intermediaries.

Shares of the Chicago, Illinois-based company have declined 4.8% from its 52-week high of $124.79. UAL stock has soared 31.3% over the past three months, surpassing the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLI) 8.1% return over the same time frame.

Longer term, shares of United Airlines have climbed 50.9% over the past 52 weeks, exceeding XLI’s 26.3% increase over the same time frame. However, the stock is up nearly 6% on a YTD basis, lagging behind XLI's 16% gain.

UAL stock has been trading above its 200-day moving averages since last year.

Shares of United Airlines fell 5.6% following its Q1 2026 results on Apr. 21 as the company issued weaker-than-expected guidance, forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1 - $2 (midpoint $1.50), and full-year EPS of $7 - $11. The disappointing outlook was driven by a sharp rise in fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict, with United expecting to pay about $4.30 per gallon for jet fuel in Q2 and recover only 40% - 50% of the fuel-price increase through fares and other revenue measures during the quarter. 

Although Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.19 beat expectations and revenue increased 10.6% to $14.6 billion, investors focused on margin pressure from higher fuel expenses, which rose 12.6% year-over-year to $340 million, and the weaker profit outlook.

In comparison, rival Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) has outperformed UAL stock. DAL stock has gained 19.8% on a YTD basis and 75.7% over the past 52 weeks. 

Due to UAL stock’s outperformance relative to the industrial sector over the past year, analysts remain strongly optimistic about its prospects. Among the 25 analysts covering the stock, there is a consensus rating of “Strong Buy,” and the mean price target of $132.22 suggests a premium of 11.6% to current levels.