Soybeans dropped through the day session and closed near the lows for the first trading day of the week. March contracts were the weakest with a 19 cent loss for the day. Soymeal futures ended the day down by $3 to $5.30, despite the export business announced this morning. That widened the inverse to $9 Jan – Mar, with March now sub-$400. Soybean Oil futures also closed red on Monday, though losses were kept to 21 points for the front months.
USDA flashed a 183k MT soymeal sale to the Philippines this morning via the daily reporting system.
Estimates ahead of the USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports is to see a 2.8 mbu tighter US soybean carryout of 242 mbu. Argentina’s soy crop is estimated to be 200k MT higher to 48.2 MMT, while Brazil is expected to be 2.8 MMT smaller to 160.1 MMT. On net the global soybean carryout is expected at 112.9 MMT, down by 1.6 MMT.
Weekly Inspections data had 1.108 MMT of soybeans shipped during the week that ended 11/30. That was down from 1.57 MMT last week and below the 2.08 MMT shipped during the same week last year. USDA also added over 1.58 MMT of bean shipments to past reports, leaving the season’s total at 18.692 MMT as of 11/30. That trails last season’s 21.669 MMT pace.
USDA’s monthly crop reports are expected to show the wheat carryout 100k bushels looser to 684.1 mbu. The global situation is expected to loosen by 200k MT on average.
StasCan reported Canadian canola output at 18.33 MMT. That compares to 18.7 MMT last year and the average trade guess of 18.3 MMT. USDA’s WAOB has a 17.8 MMT crop dialed in the November WASDE. Soybean output was set at 6.98 MMT, compared to the 6.54 MMT crop last year and the 6.8 MMT average trade guess.
StoneX estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 169.9 MMT, from their previous 165 MMT figure. Patria Agronegocios had planting pace at 83.33% finished.
Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.06 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $12.50, down 19 cents,
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $13.26 1/2, down 19 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $13.42, down 18 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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