Soy Futures Collapse after Report

Front month soy futures dropped sharply after seeing the updated USDA S&D figures. Beans are down by 20 cents as this is written, but are ~a dime off the low. Soymeal futures are trading $4.50 in the red. Front month Soybean Oil are 69 to 87 points in the red. The USDA cash average prices were reported at $12.90/bu (+20c), $380/ton (UNCH), and 63 c/lb (+1c) respectively. 

USDA’s monthly WASDE report had soybean yield 8/10ths lower, matching the average pre-report estimate, at 50.1 bpa. NASS had state cuts of over 5 bpa for DE, KS, LA, and OK. Iowa’s yield was UNCH at 58, and IL was cut 1 bpa to 61. The monthly supply side update also added 100k acres to both planted and harvested for a net production reduction of 59 mbu vs. August. The trade was looking for a 55 mbu cut. On the demand side for new crop, USDA reduced crush by 10 mbu to 2.29 bbu, and cut exports by 35 to 1.790 bbu. That put carryout at 220 mbu, 25 mbu tighter than the month prior’s forecast. 

On the world stage production fell by 1.5 MMT, reflecting the US domestic loss. USDA’s WAOB raised Chinese import demand by 1 MMT, to 100 MMT (still –2 yr/yr). Global soybean carryout was 150k MT tighter to 119.25 MMT. 

China’s CASDE put new crop soybean imports at 97.25 MMT, a 3 MMT increase from last month’s estimate but still 2.08 MMT lighter yr/yr. 

The weekly Crop Progress report had 31% of the soybean crop dropping leaves as of 9/10. That compares to 16% last week and 25% on average. 

Sep 23 Soybeans  are at $13.43 1/2, down 9 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $12.86 1/4, down 20 1/8 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  are at $13.49 1/4, down 19 3/4 cents,

Jan 24 Soybeans  are at $13.64 1/2, down 19 1/2 cents,