Fractionally Mixed Friday Corn Market

Corn prices ended the last trade day of the week mixed within 2 cents of UNCH. The September contract closed with eh 470P ITM (~5.1k OI), the 480C worthless (~5.6k OI), and the 460P worthless (~4.8k OI). The December contract was at a net 5 cent loss for the week from Fri to Fri. 

USDA’s weekly Ethanol report showed cash prices ranged from $2/gal in SD/MN to $2.11/gal in IL. For the most part ethanol was UNCH to 30 cents weaker regionally. DDGS were mostly lower by $5 to $15/ton for the week, with cash prices from $180-$220/ton regionally. Cash corn oil prices were mostly a penny higher from 65 to 70 cents/lb. 

CFTC reported the corn spec traders held a 106,135 contract net short as of 8/22. That was  33k contract stronger net short through the week, mainly driven by new sellers. The commercial corn hedgers closed 19.8k short hedges and added 11k new long hedges during the week, leaving them 80,858 contracts net short – the weakest net short since August of 2020. 

NOAA’s updated 7-day QPF shows little rain to finish things off as corn crops begin reaching maturity. The forecast has some precip for CO into KS, with a small 1 ¼” pocket in IL. Most of the corn belt will see less than ¼” of rain next week. 

BAGE estimates Argentina’s planted area will expand nearly 3% to 7.3m HA (16m acres). They also mentioned beneficial El Nino rain patterns expected to alleviate drought conditions beginning Q4 ’23 into Q1 ’24. 

The ProFarmer Crop Tour ended with a final estimate at 172 bpa for the national corn yield. That is up from 168.1 bpa last year, but near the 5-yr average. 

Sep 23 Corn  closed at $4.70 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $5.02 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 23 Corn  closed at $4.88, down 1/4 cent,

Mar 24 Corn  closed at $5.02 3/4, down 1/4 cent,