Wheat Rallies Double Digits on Wednesday

The wheat market ended the midweek session with double digit gains. Chicago SRW ended with 10 ¾ to 13 ¾ cent gains. That has the Dec contract at a ¾ cent gain for the week. KC HRW prices ended the session 1.7% to 2.2% higher with gains of as much as 17 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat closed the day 10 to 11 ½ cents higher – leaving the Dec contract at a net 14 ½ cent loss for the week’s move. September wheat options expire on Friday. 

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, analysts are looking for between 250k MT and 450k MT of wheat sales for the week that ended 8/17. 

Survey respondents ahead of the StatsCan production figures ranged from 29.3 MMT to 33.1 MMT for 23/24 Canadian wheat production. The average of 30.4 MMT would be down 3.4 MMT if realized. Traders expect StatsCan to report spring wheat at 23.1 MMT and durum at 4.3 MMT. 

Turkish president Erdogan is visiting Russia to meet with president Putin. Discussions will center around possible routes to re-enter a grain corridor arrangement. 

Private analyst SovEcon raised its 2023 Russian wheat production forecast 5 mmt to 92.1 mmt, well above the Aug-23 USDA est. of 85 mmt. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry estimates new crop wheat exports from July 1st thru Aug. 21st at 1.46 mmt, up 64% from LY. Perhaps related, 2023/24 EU wheat exports as of Aug. 20th have reached 4.06 mmt, and are below the 5.12 mmt from LY. 

Sep 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.12 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents,

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.39 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $5.44 7/8, up 10 1/2 cents,

Sep 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.55, up 15 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $6.93 5/8, up 16 cents,

Sep 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $7.84 1/2, up 11 cents,