Corn Sitting Fractionally Lower into Day Trading

Corn is beginning with a neutral start to “report day”. Overnight trading kept Dec in a 2 cent range, as futures are currently fractionally lower. The corn market settled on Thursday with 1 to 2 1/4 cent gains. December stayed in a 5 cent range for the session, all of which was below the $5 mark. The deferred months have carry/contango and are holding above $5. 

Ahead of the WASDE reports, traders are looking for USDA to lift old crop corn stocks by 8 mbu to 1.410 billion on average. Survey respondents are also looking for a 167 mbu new crop production loss via a 1.8 bpa yield drop. On net new crop carryout is expected to tighten 95 mbu to 2.167 billion. Global corn carryout is estimated 400k MT tighter to 313.7 million metric tonnes (MMT). 

CONAB raised their Brazil old crop corn production forecast by 2.19 MMT to 129.96 MMT, after raising 2nd crop yields. USDA is currently using a 133 MMT figure for Brazil’s 22/23 production. The Rosario Grains Exchange released their preliminary estimate for 23/24 corn production at 56 MMT (2.2 bbu), compared to Argentina’s ~34 MMT (1.34 bbu) crop currently being harvested. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales data had 150,434 MT of corn booked for 22/23 delivery during the week that ended 8/3. The new crop sales were came in at 758,366 MT.  Total forward sales are 5.973 MMT, a 26% lag from last year’s pace. 

Sep 23 Corn  closed at $4.83 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents, currently down 3/4 cent

Nearby Cash   was $5.23 1/1, up 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 23 Corn  closed at $4.96 1/4, up 2 cents, currently down 1/2 cent

Mar 24 Corn  closed at $5.10, up 1 3/4 cents, currently down 3/4 cent