Corn Futures Falling Double Digits Post Report

Front month corn prices are down by over 3% with 17 cent losses after seeing USDA data and rain hitting the crops. Prices were 3-5 cents weaker trading into the report. USDA left the cash average prices at $6.60 and $4.80 in the July WASDE. 

Weekly EIA data showed a 28k bpd loss in ethanol output vs last week as producers averaged 1.032m barrels per day through the week that ended 7/7. Ethanol stocks were 398k barrels looser at 22.658 million. 

USDA’s monthly WASDE data had old crop corn stocks a net 50 mbu tighter via a 75 mbu loss to export and a 25 mbu loss to ethanol offset by feed and residual’s 150 mbu increase. New crop’s supply is set at 16.747 bbu, from the 16.742 bbu in June’s report. Production was a net 55 mbu higher after USDA’s 4 bpa yield trim mostly washed out the 2m additional acres. No demand changes were made, leaving a 2.262 bbu carryout for 23/24. 

The WAOB reported their Brazilian corn production estimate at 133 MMT, matching the trade average guess with a 1 MMT increase from June. CONAB will update their figures tomorrow. Argentina was trimmed by 1 MMT to 34. Outside of the U.S. the only international new crop change was for a 500k MT increase for Ukraine to 25 MMT production. Stocks were a net 140k MT higher to 314.12. 

China’s CASDE had 23/24 corn production at 282.34 MMT, which was unchanged from June and 5 MMT above last MY. Their imports were forecasted at 17.5 MMT, also firm with last month and 500k MT lighter yr/yr. 

Sep 23 Corn  is at $4.75 3/4, down 18 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $5.19 3/8, down 18 5/8 cents,

Dec 23 Corn  is at $4.83 1/4, down 18 1/4 cents,

Mar 24 Corn  is at $4.95, down 17 3/4 cents,