S&P Futures Climb With All Eyes on Key U.S. Jobs Report

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are trending up +0.46% this morning as investors shrugged off an exchange of fire between the U.S. and Iran and awaited the release of the key U.S. jobs report.

The U.S. military said on Thursday that Iran fired missiles, drones, and deployed small boats to attack U.S. warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the U.S. intercepted the threats and carried out strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for the attacks. The United Arab Emirates’ defense ministry also said it was intercepting Iranian attacks. Despite the fighting, President Trump said the ceasefire remains in place, characterizing the latest round of strikes as a “trifle.” The price of WTI crude gave up earlier gains to trade below $95 a barrel.

The U.S. is awaiting Iran’s response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war. President Trump warned he would strike Iran “more violently” in the future if the Islamic Republic didn’t sign a deal quickly.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed lower. Zoetis (ZTS) tumbled over -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the animal health company posted downbeat Q1 results and cut its full-year guidance. Also, Insmed (INSM) plunged more than -23% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the biopharmaceutical company posted higher Q1 operating expenses and left its full-year product revenue guidance unchanged. In addition, Arm Holdings (ARM) sank over -10% after the chip company reported weaker-than-expected FQ4 royalty revenue and CEO Rene Haas cautioned about weakness in the smartphone industry. On the bullish side, Datadog (DDOG) jumped over +31% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the monitoring and analytics platform posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year guidance.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +10K to 200K, compared with the 205K expected. Also, U.S. Q1 nonfarm productivity rose +0.8% q/q, stronger than expectations of +0.7% q/q, and unit labor costs rose +2.3% q/q, weaker than expectations of +2.6% q/q. In addition, U.S. construction spending rose +0.6% m/m in March, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Finally, U.S. consumer credit rose by $24.86 billion in March, stronger than expectations of $12.5 billion.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Thursday she was “strongly supportive” of last week’s FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged, but added that she favored adjusting the post-meeting statement to “not be as closely aligned with language that has been associated with the presumption that the next move will be a cut.” Also, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said it would have been more appropriate for the statement to adopt a neutral tone on whether the next move could be up or down. Hammack added that her baseline outlook is that “interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.” At the same time, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, “I think the phrasing of the statement is less important than the actions” of the FOMC. “The real signal about the meeting is that everyone agreed to the decision.”

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Middle East conflict has introduced additional uncertainty into the outlook for interest rates. “Given the uncertainty around the Iran war, I actually don’t know what the future holds,” Kashkari said. “If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period of time, it may well be that the next move might need to be up in interest rates.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.9% chance of no rate change and a 5.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at June’s monetary policy meeting.

In tariff news, a federal trade court ruled late Thursday that President Trump didn't have the authority to impose new 10% global tariffs after his previous levies were struck down by the Supreme Court in February.

Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,900 from 7,750 on Friday, citing resilient earnings growth and continued strength in AI-related sectors.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that April Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 65K, compared to the March figure of 178K.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect the April figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y, compared to +0.2% m/m and +3.5% y/y in March.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists forecast that this figure will remain steady at 4.3% in April.

“A modest gain in payrolls alongside an unemployment rate holding at 4.3% would reinforce the picture of a labor market that’s cooling but not cracking—a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium,” according to First Citizens Bank's Phil Neuhart.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today. Economists estimate the preliminary May figure will stand at 49.7, compared to 49.8 in April.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the final March figure will remain unrevised at +1.4% m/m.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, as well as Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.37%, down -0.50%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.84% this morning as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran rattled investor sentiment. Iran on Thursday carried out attacks on U.S. warships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. to retaliate with strikes on Iranian military sites, raising doubts about peace negotiations. Also dampening sentiment, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the European Union would face “much higher” tariffs if trade deal commitments were not fulfilled by July 4th. Financial and industrial stocks were among the biggest losers on Friday. Travel stocks also sank, with IAG (IAG.LN) falling over -2% after the British Airways owner cut its full-year profit guidance, citing the impact of higher jet fuel prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. Despite Friday’s drop, the benchmark index is on track to post a weekly gain. Data from Destatis released on Friday showed that Germany’s monthly industrial production unexpectedly fell in March, as the start of the Middle East conflict pushed energy prices higher, dealing a blow to any manufacturing recovery in Europe’s largest economy this year. Separate data showed that Germany’s trade surplus shrank significantly in March, suggesting that first-quarter GDP could be revised lower. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday that the central bank may need to raise interest rates if the Middle East conflict leaves a more persistent impact on inflation. “If the energy-price shock broadens, monetary policy will need to tighten to contain the risk of second-round effects threatening medium-term price stability,” Schnabel said. In other corporate news, Rheinmetall (RHM.D.DX) slumped more than -5% after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

Germany’s Exports, Imports, and Industrial Production data were released today.

The German March Exports unexpectedly rose +0.5% m/m, stronger than expectations of -1.7% m/m.

The German March Imports jumped +5.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m.

The German March Industrial Production unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed flat, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.19%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed flat today as signs of renewed hostilities in the Middle East kept investors on edge. The U.S. and Iran exchanged military strikes in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, threatening an already fragile ceasefire and raising doubts about peace negotiations. Semiconductor stocks led the declines on Friday as investors locked in profits following the recent rally. Still, the benchmark index notched its fifth straight weekly gain, marking its longest winning streak since last July. Meanwhile, China reported higher tourism revenue during the five-day May holiday, but spending per trip remained below year-ago levels, underscoring persistently weak domestic demand. Tourism revenue in China during the Labor Day holiday, which ended Tuesday, increased 2.9% from a year earlier to 185.5 billion yuan ($27.3 billion), while per-trip spending slipped to 571 yuan this year from 574 yuan in 2025. Xiangrong Yu, an economist at Citigroup, said, “This points again to fragile consumer sentiment: households are willing to travel but hesitate to open their wallets.” Investor focus now shifts to U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China next week and a slate of domestic data, including April trade and inflation figures.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly lower today, retreating from a record high as SoftBank Group fell and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions dampened risk appetite. Technology investor SoftBank Group fell over -4% on Friday, exerting the biggest drag on the Nikkei after U.S.-listed shares of Arm Holdings sank overnight. Losses in financial and energy stocks also weighed on the benchmark index. Adding to the negative sentiment, oil prices ticked higher in Tokyo trading after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Persian Gulf. Still, the benchmark index posted strong gains for the holiday-shortened week. Government data released on Friday showed that Japan’s inflation-adjusted wages rose for a third consecutive month in March, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its next policy meeting in June. Real wages rose 1% in March from a year earlier, easing from a revised 2% rise in February but surpassing January’s 0.7% gain. Capital Economics’ Marcel Thieliant said that Japan’s wage growth eased slightly in March, but remains solid enough to support the case for a rate hike once risks stemming from the Iran war subside. “We’re sticking to our forecast that the BOJ will hike its policy rate to 1% at its June meeting,” Thieliant said. Separately, a private-sector survey showed that Japan’s service activity expanded at its slowest pace in 11 months in April, as uncertainty and higher costs from the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment. In corporate news, Toyota Motor slid more than -2% after the automaker projected a 20% drop in full-year profit due to cost and supply uncertainties arising from the Middle East conflict. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -9.25% to 34.16.

The Japanese April S&P Global Services PMI was revised lower to 51.0 from the preliminary reading of 51.2.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip stocks advanced in pre-market trading, with Qualcomm (QCOM) rising over +6% after Daiwa upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $225.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) jumped over +28% in pre-market trading after announcing that a leading AI lab agreed to pay $1.8 billion over seven years for its cloud infrastructure services.

Block (XYZ) climbed over +7% in pre-market trading after the fintech company posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its full-year gross profit guidance.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) rose about +7% in pre-market trading after the space launch services and technology provider reported better-than-expected Q1 results and issued above-consensus Q2 revenue guidance.

The Trade Desk (TTD) plunged more than -12% in pre-market trading after the advertising-technology company posted weaker-than-expected Q1 adjusted EPS and provided soft Q2 revenue guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - May 8th

PPL Corporation (PPL), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), QXO, Inc. (QXO), TeraWulf (WULF), Oshkosh (OSK), Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS), Construction Partners (ROAD), Fluor (FLR), Starwood Property Trust (STWD), CG Oncology (CGON), Essent Group (ESNT), Telephone and Data Systems (TDS), Orla Mining (ORLA), Array Digital Infrastructure (AD), Tango Therapeutics (TNGX), Erasca (ERAS), Calumet (CLMT), Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), Immunome (IMNM), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP), AnaptysBio (ANAB), Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), Sylvamo (SLVM), Interface (TILE), Global Partners LP (GLP), Alamar Biosciences (ALMR), Dauch (DCH), Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA), The Wendy's Company (WEN), Burford Capital (BUR), Janux Therapeutics (JANX), Koppers Holdings (KOP), Ur-Energy (URG), Strawberry Fields REIT (STRW), AdvanSix (ASIX), Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX), ProKidney (PROK), Johnson Outdoors (JOUT), Aura Biosciences (AURA), 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT), Immix Biopharma (IMMX), XOMA Royalty (XOMA).