What Did the June WASDE Report Tell the Corn Futures Market?

I asked if corn prices were too low in a February 24, 2026, Barchart article that concluded with the following:

The weather across the fertile growing regions, global corn demand, and producer hedging over the coming weeks will determine whether a bullish trend develops into the 2026 crop year, beginning with the planting season in March and April. The farmer’s decision to plant more beans than corn could be a critical factor in determining the path of least resistance for corn prices over the coming weeks and months.  

Nearby CBOT corn futures were trading at $4.4250 on February 23, with the December contract at $4.6450 per bushel. After rallying to just above the $5 level in mid-May, December corn futures have declined and are below the late February price as of late June. 

New-crop December corn futures plunge from the mid-May high

The new-crop December CBOT corn futures contract reached a 2026 high on May 13 and fell to a new low for 2026 on June 15. 

The daily chart shows the 14.3% decline from the May 13 high of $5.0650 to the June 15 low of $4.3425 per bushel. 

Corn is the primary ingredient in U.S. ethanol, and biofuel prices have retreated

In the United States, corn is the primary ingredient in ethanol production. The U.S. government mandates that gasoline and ethanol be blended to reduce emissions. Therefore, gasoline and ethanol prices impact corn prices. 

As the daily continuous year-to-date Chicago ethanol swap chart shows, biofuel prices have declined 11.8% from $2.0625 on March 27 to $1.8200 per gallon wholesale in late June. 

Meanwhile, over the same period, gasoline prices have dropped more than ethanol prices.

The chart shows the 26.5% decline in RBOB gasoline prices from $3.7640 on May 4 to $2.7680 on June 24. The decline in gasoline and crude oil prices has weighed on ethanol prices. Meanwhile, corn demand has dropped with ethanol prices. 

2026 has been a unique year because of the conflict in the Middle East, which closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical logistical chokepoint for crude oil and oil products. However, the rising prospect of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has pushed oil and gasoline prices lower, leading to declines in ethanol swap corn prices. 

Since gasoline and corn are correlated, Seasonality does not favor corn

Corn is currently in the heart of the 2026 growing season. The U.S. is the world’s leading corn-producing country, so the weather across the U.S. fertile plains is the critical factor for the 2026 corn crop. 

The correlation between corn and gasoline prices is seasonal, with the peak driving during spring and summer. During fall and winter, adverse weather conditions often limit gasoline consumption, putting downward pressure on gasoline and ethanol prices and limiting ethanol-based corn consumption. Therefore, seasonality regarding ethanol-based corn consumption for December delivery does not favor higher corn prices. 

The latest WASDE report was mostly bearish

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report on June 11. The June WASDE report told the corn market the following:

Slightly higher beginning and ending U.S. stocks for 2026/2027 led the USDA to leave its price forecast unchanged at $4.40 per bushel. Global corn stocks increased from the previous month, which was bearish for the price. 

I reached out to Jake Hanley at Teucrium, the company that administers the CORN ETF, for his opinion on the June WASDE report. Jake wrote:

The bottom line is that the overall fundamental corn data was more bearish than bullish. 

Levels to watch in the new-crop corn futures contract

The monthly continuous corn futures chart highlights that the price has declined to near the critical technical support level. 

The monthly chart shows that continuous contract corn futures at just above the $4.10 per bushel level are closing in on technical support at the August 2025 low of $3.92 and the August 2024 low of $3.85 levels. 

Resistance is at the May 2026 high of $4.8750 and the February 2025 high of $5.1875 per bushel. Since the highs tend to occur before or during the planting and growing season, and the lows often occur in the late growing season when weather conditions are clear, corn could be heading lower over the coming weeks. Given the latest WASDE report, the odds still favor the downside and a test of the August 2025 and 2024 lows.