SRW Left Behind on Thursday

Wheats were mixed at the close, as the hard red classes ended in the black to SRW’s fractional to 2 cent front month losses. KC Wheat was 1 1/2 to 5 3/4 cents higher at the close. MPLS spring wheat futures were 6 1/2 to 8 cents higher on the day. 

The USDA’s weekly Export Sales report had old crop wheat bookings at a net 45k MT cancelation for the week that ended 5/18. Pre-report estimates ranged -75k to +100k MT. Nigeria had net new purchases, but Japan and Philippines lightened their commitments. Total 22/23 commitments were 18.841 MMT, or 692.3 mbu, with 2 weeks left in the season. Of that, 635.3 mbu had been shipped through 5/18. By class, old crop HRW shipments reached 174.8 mbu of the 220 expected, SRW shipments were 96.83 mbu of the 110 mbu expected, HRS sat at 190.5 of USDA’s 220, and white wheat exports were marked at 158.8 of the 200 mbu forecast. New crop wheat sales were 245k MT and near the low end of estimates. 

Russia’s IKAR raised their expected 2023 wheat output by 2 MMT to 86. Their new export potential is estimated at 44 MMT. The EU’s Copa-Cogeca estimates 2023 grain production at 277 MMT, up 4.6% yr/yr. Their soft wheat outlook is expected to increase 2.8%. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported the season’s grain export was 4.6% behind last year’s pace with 44.6 MMT shipped – including 15.3 MMT of wheat, an 18% decrease yr/yr. 

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.04 1/4, down 2 cents,

Sep 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.17 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $5.43 1/4, down 2 cents,

Jul 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.18, up 5 3/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.90 1/1, up 11 3/8 cents,

Jul 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.05 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents,