Wheat Trading Lower for the Wednesday Session

Early market action has the wheat futures with double digit losses into the midweek’s day session. Chicago SRW futures pushed lower through Tuesday up until ~10:30 CST. From there the market firmed up a dime off the lows, but prices were still 10 cents weaker on the day. The hard red markets closed in the black. HRS prices firmed back up to end the day 1 3/4 to 4 cents higher, while HRW stayed mostly higher on the day and closed 1 3/4 to 12 cents in the black. 

Analysts estimate the USDA will raise the old crop wheat carryout by 4.3 mbu on average to 602.3. Estimates range from a 13 mbu cut to a 24 mbu looser ending stocks. New crop wheat stocks are estimated at 607.7 mbu on average. U.S. wheat output is expected to come in at 1.811 bbu in Friday’s numbers. Analysts expect at least 1.691 bbu, but the highest estimate is 1.924 bbu. For winter wheat specifically, survey responses ranged from 1.080 to 1.371 bbu. 

The weekly Crop Progress report showed 24% of the new crop spring wheat was planted by 5/7, up 12 ppts for the week and 14 ppts behind the average pace. NASS marked 5% of the spring wheat crop as emerged compared to 11% on average. The weekly update showed 38% of the winter wheat crop was headed, 3% points ahead of the 5-yr average pace. Winter wheat conditions were 1 point lower to 269 when converted to the Brugler500 Index. 

A Stats Canada report from Tuesday morning showed all wheat stocks as of March 31 at 13.3 MMT, 18.2% larger than last year. The trade was expecting stockpiles of 14 MMT.

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.43 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents, currently down 9 3/4 cents

Sep 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.55 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents, currently down 9 1/2 cents 

Cash SRW Wheat  was $5.82 3/8, down 10 5/8 cents,

Jul 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.56 1/4, up 12 cents, currently down 15 3/4 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.25, up 11 1/8 cents,

Jul 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.47 3/4, up 4 cents, currently down 11 1/2 cents