Higher for Longer: Why Energy Secretary Chris Wright Is Predicting Gasoline Prices Will Stay Above $3 Until 2027

The fragile Iran-war ceasefire has been extended indefinitely, but consumers still await relief at the pump as oil prices continue to trade above pre-war levels. Recently, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent remarked that he was “optimistic that sometime between June 20 and Sept. 20 […] we can have $3 gas again.” This has raised the belief that oil prices are set to cool down. However, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright doesn't quite agree.

In a recent CNN interview, Wright acknowledged that oil prices may have peaked, but he remained of the opinion that gas prices below $3 per gallon do not seem to be a reality in the near future. “I don’t know — that could happen later this year, that might not happen until next year,” said Wright.

Why Gas Prices May Stay Higher for Longer

April 2026 brought an unwelcome milestone for U.S. drivers, as the national average for a gallon of gasoline climbed above $4, a number not seen at the pump since 2022. The jarring part is not just the $4 figure itself but the pace at which prices got there. In late February, before the Middle East descended into open conflict, drivers were paying somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.98 per gallon. It only took one month for prices to rise by roughly 35% — and for households already managing tight finances, the additional burden landed hard.

At the center of everything sits the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor so narrow on a map yet so outsized in its consequences for global energy markets. More than one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and right now that fact alone is enough to keep traders on edge.

What matters here is that no actual shortfall in global production is driving the increase in prices. The oil exists. What does not exist, at the moment, is any reliable sense of security around the passage, and energy markets have responded by building a substantial anxiety premium into prices. A credible and lasting resolution to the Iran war would remove the foundation that premium rests on, and the adjustment at the pump would likely follow with relatively little delay.

The economy has demonstrated some surprising resilience, as the headline retail sales figure for March showed a 1.7% monthly gain. However, that reading deserves more scrutiny. A disproportionate share of the increase flowed from service stations, where consumers were simply paying more for the fuel they were already buying, not stretching to purchase something new. The seasonal arrival of tax refunds added further warmth to the data in a way that will not be repeated in subsequent months. With these two factors in mind, the trajectory looks considerably less encouraging. Economists trimming their quarterly growth estimates are doing so with a straightforward logic in mind. When energy costs rise sharply and stay there, families absorb the hit somewhere, and the spending that goes first tends to be the kind that was always optional. With household savings under sustained pressure, that adjustment is already beginning to register.

Trump Will Not Want to Jeopardize His Midterm Chances

That brings us to the White House, which is navigating all of this as the political calendar grows less forgiving by the week. Midterm elections are closing in, and the polling has moved in a direction that makes for an uncomfortable reading inside President Donald Trump's administration. One recent survey put Trump's economic approval at 30% in April, down from 38% just a month earlier. Trump's overall job approval landed at 33%. 

Trump's own public comments — in which he suggested that relief at the pump may not arrive until November — have done little to steady the mood among his supporters. Voters who were promised a sustained improvement in their daily cost of living are now watching prices climb again, and the frustration that produces is not confined to opposition circles. Even among Trump's most reliable constituents, the confidence that once felt durable is beginning to wear thin.

The Takeaway

The good news is that the ceasefire has been extended and the economy is hanging on for the time being, with the stock markets remarkably near all-time highs as negotiations continue. However, sentiments are changing, and a prolonged period of high prices at the pump and elsewhere will not do Trump's prospects any good come November. For the president's own sake, a long-lasting resolution will need to be reached soon in order to soothe the singing pockets of U.S. consumers.