Hogs Post Wobble Wednesday Losses

Hog futures reversed Tuesday gains, with nearby contracts down 27 cents to $2.55. Back months were steady to a dime higher. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price was down 32 cents from Tuesday at $77.80. The CME Lean Hog Index was $76.76 on 2/20, up 35 cents from the previous day. 

Wire stories suggest the US Supreme Court will announce a decision regarding the Prop 12 California state law “relatively soon”. 

USDA’s Ag Attache expects Mexico’s 2023 hog herd to rise from 12.95m head to 12.56m head through the year. Total slaughter is expected to reach 21.25m head matching the USDA’s official and up from 2022’s 20.4m head slaughter. The Attache had total pork output matching USDA’s official estimate at 1.6 MMT, from 1.53 MMT last year. Imports are seen dropping off 35k MT yr/yr to 1.24 MMT. China’s Ministry of Ag suggests the sow herd is comfortable near 41m head, and aims to keep the breeding herd near that level. 

Pork cutout futures also collapsed on Wednesday, with April own $1.20. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up 4 cents on Wednesday afternoon to $83.05. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 428,000 head for Wednesday, taking the WTD total to 1.389 million head. That is down 56,000 head from last week and 27,000 head lower than the same week last year. 

Apr 23 Hogs  closed at $86.550, down $2.550,

May 23 Hogs  closed at $95.750, down $1.425

Apr 23 Pork Cutout  closed at $93.550, down $1.200,