Report Day Gains Push Corn into Black for the Week

March corn went from -1 1/4 to +5 1/2 cents, and the day settled up by 4 1/2 cents. March is now at a net 1c gain for the week so far. The other contracts closed higher on report day as well, with gains of 2 to 3 1/4 cents. USDA left the cash average price forecast for corn UNCH at $6.70. 

USDA reduced their ethanol draw in the corn balance sheet by 25 mbu to 6.69 bbu, but left exports UNCH at 1.925 billion. That upped the carryout by 25 mbu to 1.267 bbu – the trade was looking for a 1.273 bbu carryout on average. 

Globally, USDA cut production 4.5 MMT, mainly from Argentina. Argentina was forecasted with a 47 MMT crop – compared to the average trade guess of 48.5 MMT. Brazil was UNCH at 125 MMT. Despite the lost production, USDA raised global trade by nearly 3 MMT, mostly via a transfer from Argentina to Brazil and a 2 MMT increase for Ukraine. Global carryout was reported to be 295.28 MMT, from 296.4 last month and 294.9 MMT expected. 

Brazil’s CONAB data showed a 1.32 MMT reduced corn crop compared to their January report. The major shift was via an area reduction for second crop, down 2% to 16.97m HA (41.94m acres). They are now below USDA’s 125 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimates Argentina’s corn crop at 42.5 MMT, down by 2.5 MMT from their prior estimate and now 4.5 MMT below USDA. 

EIA data released this morning showed producers averaged 1m barrels per day during the week that ended 2/03. That was down from 1.028m barrels per day during the previous week, but marked the 4th consecutive week of +1m barrel per day production. Ethanol stocks dropped 25k barrels to 24.417 million. 

Mar 23 Corn  closed at $6.78 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $6.82, up 4 7/8 cents,

May 23 Corn  closed at $6.76 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Jul 23 Corn  closed at $6.65 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,