Apple Stock: Why the Dow’s Best-Looking Chart Is Rotting from the Inside Out

I review a lot of charts for ETFs and stocks. On the equities side, the Dow 30 ($DOWI) is my go to. I reviewed them this week using Barchart’s easy “Flipcharts” tool, one of my favorite site features, along with the Watchlists capability. Any watchlist (like this one) can be viewed instantly in Flipcharts form.

Here’s what Apple (AAPL) looks like in that function, as of Thursday’s close. To me, it has as much upside potential in the near term (3-6 weeks) as any stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Ah, but there’s a catch. 

AAPL’s chart is encouraging to the extent that with Thursday’s $263 close, it appears to have enough momentum to challenge its all-time high of around $290. What’s the issue then? Two things:

1. That’s a 10% move, and the weekly chart (below) does not look ready to play along. The percentage price oscillator (PPO) is still floundering, and that will take some time to cross up (black line above blue line), barring some sort of earnings pop. Translation: 10% might be the best-case scenario here.

1. A lot of Dow stocks have the same issue. As do many non-Dow stocks. This is what happens when a market in a 9% dip suddenly catches fire, and investors are “all in” again faster than we can write about it.

I wrote here recently that I could definitely see a bounce of sorts, near term, in the broader market. But beyond that bounce, it was murky at best. I have yet to budge off that position, though I’m constantly looking for reasons to change my view. But it isn’t me, it’s the data.

AAPL Stock Is ROARing Higher 

AAPL’s ROAR Score stood at 60 at Thursday’s close. That’s enough for me to conclude that the risk of major loss from here is relatively low. However, we can see that AAPL has been very consistent this year when it comes to its ROAR Score trend. Specifically, it has been misjudging this iconic stock’s risk level routinely.

That brings up a couple of questions. 

First, why is this happening? Answer: because in a market like this, where stocks bob up and down in 7%-10% gyrations, any technical tool (like ROAR) is bound to be a step behind. Turning on a dime is good for swing traders, but not investing systems like this one, which seek to manage risk first. 

As it turns out, the two times ROAR needed to do its main risk assessment job well, it did. Those were a pair of 6%-8% dips that have occurred so far. ROAR was yellow, then red, to guide through the gradual increase in risk. As I remind anyone who will listen, ROAR is far less about “buy/sell” and all about “how much risk am I taking if I buy or already own this?” That’s a big difference. 

That leads me to the second thing, which concerns the frenetic nature of 2026’s stock market. It is like everything matters except for all the things that used to drive stock prices. That’s something I think investors and traders are just beginning to realize. So I’m printing it here, since it has become a daily obsession for me. For all the right reasons.

To the casual observer, AAPL’s stock price trend looks like a textbook breakout — a blue-chip giant reclaiming its throne as the ultimate flight-to-safety trade. The catch is rooted in the Strait of Hormuz energy reality. That issue, or any of the other big-picture items like tech earnings. AI spend, and Federal Reserve policy, now put EVERY stock in potential crosshairs of sellers. That modern reality is why ROAR, a risk management tool, automatically punishes a stock when it spikes higher. 

Why AAPL Is Not Immune to Macro Issues 

Because sustained moves in stocks are the issue now. 5% in two days? No problem. 30% over two years, without much fanfare in the way of drawdowns? Much tougher.

While Apple is often viewed as a software and services powerhouse, it remains a hardware company at its core, dependent on a global supply chain that is currently being squeezed by rising shipping and energy costs. The recent rally in the stock seems to be betting on a perfect resolution to the geopolitical tension, one where consumer demand remains unfazed by the energy-led inflation hitting the average household. If the “Hormuz Hurricane” doesn’t dissipate perfectly, the very margins that make Apple a safe haven could be the first to face a revision.

Rob Isbitts created the ROAR Score, based on his 40+ years of technical analysis experience. ROAR helps DIY investors manage risk and create their own portfolios. For Rob's written research, check out ETFYourself.com.