Crude Prices Fall Sharply as Geopolitical Risks Ease

May WTI crude oil (CLK26) on Wednesday closed down -18.54 (-16.41%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBK26) closed down -0.2993 (-9.06%).  Crude oil and gasoline prices plummeted on Wednesday, with crude posting a 1.5-week low and gasoline posting a 2-week low.   Crude prices plunged on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Crude prices were also pressured after weekly EIA crude inventories rose more than expected to a 2.75-year high.

Crude prices recovered from their worst levels on Wednesday after Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said that passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted due to Israel's continuing attacks on Lebanon.

It remains to be seen if there will be a permanent end to the Iran war.  Iran has shown little willingness to accept US demands to eliminate its nuclear program or retire its ballistic missile arsenal.  President Trump confirmed the US received a ten-point Iranian proposal that will serve as the basis for future negotiations.  The US and Iran have confirmed participation in peace talks in Islamabad on Friday.  Iran has previously called for the lifting of sanctions and compensation for war damages.  The Associated Press reported that the ceasefire plan includes allowing Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran using the proceeds for reconstruction.

Persian Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut production by roughly 6% due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as local storage facilities reach capacity.  The Strait of Hormuz normally handles a fifth of the world's oil.  The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that more than 40 energy sites across nine Middle Eastern countries have been "severely or very severely" damaged and require lengthy repairs.  The IEA warned that even if the war were to end within a few weeks, it would still take time for normal flows through Hormuz to resume.  There are more than 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, with over 1,000 vessels waiting on both sides of the strait to transit.  Before the war, the average daily volume of ships transiting through the strait was about 135.

Crude prices also have support after Saudi Arabia's state producer, Saudi Aramco, raised the price of its main oil grade to Asia by $17 a barrel for May delivery, the biggest jump on record.

In a bearish factor for crude, OPEC+ on Sunday said it will boost its crude output by 206,000 bpd in May, although that production hike now seems unlikely given that Middle East producers are being forced to cut production due to the Middle East war.  OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 827,000 bpd left to restore.  OPEC's March crude production fell by -7.56 million bpd to a 35-year low of 22.05 million bpd.

Mounting crude supplies in floating storage are a bearish factor for oil prices.  According to Vortexa data, about 290 million bbl of Russian and Iranian crude are currently in floating storage on tankers, more than 40% higher than a year ago, due to blockades and sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -3.9% w/w to 130.25 million bbl in the week ended April 3.

The most recent US-brokered meeting in Geneva to end the war between Russia and Ukraine ended early as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy accused Russia of dragging out the war.  Russia has said the "territorial issue" remains unresolved with Ukraine, and there's "no hope of achieving a long-term settlement" to the war until Russia's demand for territory in Ukraine is accepted.  The outlook for the Russia-Ukraine war to continue will keep restrictions on Russian crude in place and is bullish for oil prices.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past eight months, limiting Russia's crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies.  Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea.  In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Wednesday's weekly EIA report was mixed for crude oil and products.  On the negative side, EIA crude inventories rose by +3.08 million bbl to a 2.75-year high, a larger build than expectations of +500,000 bbl.  Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, rose by +24,000 bbl to a 20-month high.  On the positive side, EIA distillate stockpiles fell by -3.1 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -1.25 million bbl.

Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of April 3 were +1.5% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +3.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -4.2% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending April 3 fell -0.4% w/w to  13.596 million bpd, mildly below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Thursday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended April 3 rose by +2 to 411 rigs, just above the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.