March NY world sugar #11 (SBH23) on Friday closed down -0.22 (-1.13%), and March London white sugar #5 (SWH23) closed down -9.40 (-1.74%).
Sugar prices on Friday posted moderate losses, with NY sugar falling to a 2-week low and London sugar falling to a 1-week low. Â An increase in sugar output from Brazil weighed on prices Friday after Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the 2022/23 marketing year through mid-November rose +0.3% y/y at 31.966 MMT.
Sugar prices Friday were also undercut from a more than -1% fall in crude oil prices (CLF23). Â Weaker crude prices undercut ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward sugar production rather than ethanol, thus boosting sugar supplies.
A bearish factor for sugar was Monday's forecast from Czarnikow that Brazil's Center-South mills would produce 34.7 million metric tons of sugar in 2023-24 (Apr/Mar), up +7% y/y and the highest in three years.
Sugar prices are also under pressure after the Organization of Cane Producers Association in Brazil forecasted Monday that Brazil's sugar output in 2022/23 at 36.9 million metric tons due to favorable weather and that production would reach 37.2 million metric tons in 2023/24.
Sugar prices garnered support Tuesday after the Thai Sugar Milliers Corp cut its 2022/23 Thailand sugar cane output estimate to 105 MMT from 110 MMT, citing unfavorable weather conditions. Â
Sugar prices continued to have support after the Indian Sugar Mills Association last week said that India's sugar production from Oct 1 to Nov 15 fell by -4.3% y/y.
Higher sugar output in India is bearish for prices. Â On Oct 24, the Indian Sugar Mills Association forecasted that India's 2022/23 sugar production (Oct 1-Sep 30) would climb +2% y/y to 36.5 MMT as Indian farmers boosted their planted cane acreage by +5.4% y/y to 5.6 mln hectares. Â In 2021/22, India's sugar production rose +2.9% y/y to 35.8 MMT. Â India is the world's second-largest sugar producer. Â Also, robust sugar exports from India are bearish for prices after India 2021/22 sugar exports jumped +57% y/y to a record 11 MMT.
In a bearish factor, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) last Tuesday projected that global 2022/23 sugar production would climb +5.5% y/y to a record high of 182.1 MMT. Â Also, ISO projected that the 2022/23 global sugar market would be in a surplus of +6.2 MMT.
More Sugar News from Barchart
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