Wheat Fades on Monday

Despite the weak start to the short week, wheat prices bounced in the afternoon to limit the drop. CBT SRW closed 13 1/4 cents off the low for the day (Dec) but still ended down by 3 3/4 to 4 1/4 cents. KC futures ended Monday’s trade UNCH to 2 1/2 cents in the red, after bouncing back by 10-11 cents from the intra day lows. MGE wheat futures closed 3 1/2 to 6 cents in the red on the day. 

USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report showed emergence reached 87% as of 11/20. That is 1% point ahead of the 5-yr average. Winter wheat conditions were UNCH last week at 32% good/ex, but 2 points lower on the Brugler500 index to 289. In KS, winter wheat conditions were 266 on the Brugler500 index. 

Weekly wheat exports were 279,904 MT from the Inspections report. That was a 109k MT increase wk/wk and was up 87k MT from the same week last year. White wheat made up 43% of the total, with HRW for 34%. 

IKAR forecasts Russian wheat exports at 44 MMT, up from their 42 MMT prior estimate on 101.5 MMT of production. Russia’s wheat export tax was down 6.4% for the week to 2,735 rubles/tonne (~$44.93). 

China released 40,152 MT of wheat from state reserves, 100% of the offer, on 11/16, at an average price of $11.14 per bushel. 

Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their Argentinian wheat export estimate to 6.5 MMT, from 7, citing lower wheat production. Argentina’s Economy Ministry estimates the wheat crop at 13.4 MMT for 22/23, a 39.4% drop from 21/22 – citing both the prolonged drought and frost conditions in the south. 

Dec 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.99 1/4, down 4 cents,

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $8.18 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $7.33 1/2, down 4 cents,

Dec 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $9.34 1/4, down 0 cent,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.93 1/2, unch,

Dec 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.48, down 3 1/2 cents,