How Instacart Stock Could Be an Unlikely Winner From the Latest LLM Updates

Internet stocks have gotten crushed this year, and many are still trading down as investors trim their software holdings. Maplebear (CART), which operates as Instacart, has been part of this trimming process, too — but it may rebound faster as the fears surrounding CART stock start to become disproven.

The prevailing fear is that ChatGPT and Alphabet's (GOOGL) AI products will become the new "front door" to commerce and cut out companies like Instacart entirely. TD Cowen analysts had previously warned that AI platforms could become "the new OS," thereby replacing apps altogether.

Let's take a closer look.

The Bear Thesis Is Not Holding Up

Back in early March, OpenAI confirmed that it was halting Instant Checkout, the feature that let users complete purchases directly inside ChatGPT. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the company is "evolving [its] commerce strategy within ChatGPT to better meet merchants and users where they are."

Users simply never really shopped inside the chatbot. It was an unwelcome feature from the get-go, as ChatGPT users expect the shopping advice that they get from AI to be as free of influence as possible. Having this commerce strategy likely backfired, as users still go elsewhere to get neutral takes on what they purchase — and that exit practically dismantles the bearish argument for how AI could kill Instacart.

Moreover, even as Google's “AI Overviews” absorbs some clicks, the company has said that it drives "billions of clicks to websites every day." Google has also introduced features like Preferred Sources. For Instacart, this means its visibility in Google's ecosystem remains intact rather than being eaten by an AI layer.

CART Stock Is Yet to Make a Big Move Upwards

The bearish thesis may be failing, but Instacart stock is only starting to make a move in the other direction. The market is yet to realize how Instacart could be an unlikely winner, and this spells opportunity if you want to buy CART stock before it likely recovers.

Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni recently upgraded shares of Instacart to a "Buy," arguing that OpenAI's pivot toward advertising instead of direct checkout, plus Google remaining neutral, translates into a net gain for the company.

Jefferies upgraded the price target to $45 from $38. Since then, the stock has started to move more aggressively, up 10% in the past five days.

Instacart Is Surprisingly Future-Proof

Of course, OpenAI is moving out, but that doesn't mean other AI companies won't make a move into this space later on. Thankfully, though, Instacart is well-positioned to take them on.

Instacart was the first company to offer embedded checkout inside ChatGPT back in December 2025, powered by the Agentic Commerce Protocol and Stripe. It was the flagship example of what "agentic commerce" could look like. And since Instant Checkout is now out, Instacart has gone from being one of many possible commerce endpoints to being a preferred infrastructure layer through which ChatGPT routes grocery transactions.

Chief Technology Officer Anirban Kundu believes the company has positioned itself as an essential grocery engine for AI platforms. "This has made Instacart a key partner for leading AI companies […] that see great value in connecting our retail network with their consumer platforms," said Kundu.

Is It Time to Buy CART Stock?

All of the fuss about AI killing Instacart was overhyped. Similarly, I believe cheers about AI bringing on a boon for Instacart are similarly overestimated. A better idea is to consider how the business is doing organically.

Investors are looking at an e-commerce business expected to grow just shy of 10% annually, with EPS (minus non-recurring estimates) growing at roughly 20% annually. Do both of these metrics together warrant a 16 times forward earnings premium in today's market? Sure. But I do not think that premium is set to increase much higher.

Jefferies' price target of $45 is sensible and means investors are taking on significant risk for just 10% potential upside at current levels. Higher upside is obviously possible, but there are far better bets in this sector. With that in mind, CART stock may be a "Hold" at best.