Corn is working with morning weakness of 2 to 3 3/4 cents so far. Overnight saw a mostly +/- 3 cent range around UNCH. Preliminary OI showed a net loss of 3.5k contracts across the corn board, but there was more rolling from Dec (-27.7k contracts) to March (+19k contracts). Corn futures printed a volatile intra day chart, leading to a 14c range from +5 to -9 1/2. Ultimately, corn futures closed the day 3 to 5 cents in the red. New crop December weakened by more, leaving the December to December spread at a 50 1/4 cent nearby premium. USDA did not adjust the average cash price for corn from $6.80 per bushel.Â
The monthly USDA updates showed corn yields were raised 0.4 bpa to 172.3 nationally. That was within the range of estimates though the average trade guess was for a slight trim. That left production at 13.930 bbu, compared to 13.895 in October’s estimates and the 13.888 bbu trade average guess. The WASDE then increased feed and residual demand by 25 mbu. Carryout was then figured to be 1.118 bbu, which is below the 1.218 bbu average estimate.Â
On the global stage, production was only reduced by 350k MT as the U.S. and smaller countries’ increases offset a trim to EU and South Africa. Carryout was reduced by 430k MT to 300.76 MMT. The trade average guess was to see 300.7 MMT for carryout. CONAB reported their corn output projection at 126.4 MMT, compared to 126.94 last month. USDA’s WASDE expects a 126 MMT crop out of Brazil – UNCH from last month’s forecast.Â
Export Sales estimates ahead of tomorrow’s update are for 300k to 650k MT for the week that ended 11/3. New crop bookings are estimated to be below 50k MT.Â
EIA data had 1.051m bpd of ethanol output during the week that ended 11/4. That was 11k barrels per day more than the week prior. Stocks tightened by 40k barrels to 22.192 million.
Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.64 1/2, down 3 cents, currently down 2 3/4 cents
Nearby Cash  was $6.63 5/8, down 2 3/4 cents,
Mar 23 Corn  closed at $6.70 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents, currently down 2 3/4 cents
May 23 Corn  closed at $6.70 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents, currently down 3 1/4 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.
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