4c Weakness for Corn Into Thursday

Following the monthly S&D report, corn futures are sitting near their overnight lows. Rices tried working higher, until morning weakness moved the quotes to 4c losses. Corn prices were initially weaker after the USDA report, and Dec futures fell back to $6.80 after a millisecond spike to $7. Ultimately corn futures ended the day fractionally mixed to a penny in the red. Preliminary open interest rose 7,383 contracts on the sideways action. 

Weekly Export Sales will be released on Friday due to the Monday holiday. 

USDA cut the corn yield by 0.6 bpa to a 171.9 national average. That was within the range of estimates but was below the average trade guess going in. Production fell by 49 mbu to 13.895 bbu on UNCH acres. At the state level, IL was upped by 6 bpa to a state record 210, IN was 1 bpa higher, and IA was flat, though NE dropped 4 bpa to 172. The U.S. carryout is now estimated at 1.172 bbu – about 50 mbu above the trade average guess.  The updated USDA cash average price is a nickel higher to $6.80/bu. 

Internationally, production was 3.84 MMT lower to 1.169b MT. The U.S. cut and the EU were the contributors. Ukraine was given 2.5 MMT of the 3.2 MMT lighter U.S. export as global trade was down a net 500k MT from the Sep forecast. Corn ending stocks were down 3.34 to reflect the supply, that was in line with estimates. 

Argentina’s BAGE reported 13% of the 2023 early corn crop was in the ground, trailing last year’s 24% pace. Brazil’s AgRural reported 1st crop corn planting reached 38.8% planted –slightly ahead of last year’s 37.9% pace. USDA left Brazilian production UNCH at 126 MMT and Argentina at 55 MMT. 

Dec 22 Corn  closed at $6.93, unch, currently down 4 3/4 cents

Nearby Cash   was $6.76 3/8 on Wednesday, up 7/8 cent,

Mar 23 Corn  closed at $7.00, down 1/4 cent, currently down 4 1/2 cents

May 23 Corn  closed at $7.01, down 1/2 cent, currently down 4 1/4 cents