Crude Rallies on Expectations for OPEC+ to Cut Production

Nov WTI crude oil (CLX22) this morning is up +3.07 (+3.86%), and Nov RBOB gasoline (RBX22) is up +11.06 (+4.67%).  Nov Nymex natural gas (NGX22) is down by -0.373 (-5.51%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices this morning rallied sharply to 1-week highs on dollar weakness and expectations for OPEC+ to cut its crude production targets when it meets on Wednesday.  However, crude prices fell back from their best levels on a decline in global manufacturing activity, a sign of weaker energy demand.

Nov nat-gas prices today tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low and are sharply lower on record U.S. production and reduced U.S. domestic nat-gas demand due to the power outages in the Southeast from Hurricane Ian.  BNEF data showed lower-48 state U.S. nat-gas production on Sunday climbed to a record high of 103.2 bcf.  A mixed weather outlook is also weighing on nat-gas prices after the Commodity Weather Group said today that it expects below-normal temperatures in the Eastern U.S. and above-normal temperatures in the West from October 8-12.    

Crude oil prices rallied today after delegates of OPEC+ said the group is considering cutting production by more than 1.0 million bpd when it meets Wednesday.

Weaker-than-expected global manufacturing activity is bearish for energy demand and crude prices.  The U.S. Sep ISM manufacturing index fell -1.9 to a 2-1/4 year low of 50.9, weaker than expectations of 52.0.  Also, the Eurozone Sep global manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to a 2-1/4 year low of 48.4.  In addition, the  Japan Sep Jibun bank manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.2 to a 20-month low of 50.8.

In a bullish factor, Vortexa reported today that the amount of crude stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least a week fell -17% w/w to 91.19 million bbls in the week ended September 30.

Crude oil prices garnered support after OPEC+ on September 5 agreed to cut its crude production level by 100,000 bpd in October, its first cut in production in more than a year.  Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, "the simple tweak in production shows that OPEC+ will be attentive, preemptive and pro-active" in managing crude markets.  OPEC crude production in September rose +230,000 bpd to a 2-1/2 year high of 29.89 million bpd.  An increase in crude exports from Libya is bearish for oil prices after Libya Sep crude exports jumped +25% m/m to 1.16 million bpd, a 14-month high.

Crude oil prices have support as China eases some of its pandemic restrictions.   China's Covid lockdowns have hurt Chinese energy demand in recent months.  Chinese refineries in July handled the least amount of oil since March 2020 as Covid lockdowns and refinery shutdowns for maintenance undercut crude demand.  Also, current crude demand remains weak as China's Bureau of Statistics reported China Aug crude processing rose just +0.9% from July and was still down -8% y/y to 12.69 million bpd.

Oil prices are seeing support from the dim prospects for a nuclear deal with Iran that would lift sanctions against Iran and allow its crude back onto the global markets.  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently said that "the information gap is bigger and bigger" on Iran's recent nuclear activities.  Also, the European Union's chief negotiator recently said that "in light of Iran's failure to conclude the agreement on the table, we will consult with our international partners on how best to deal with Iran's continued nuclear escalation."

Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) U.S. crude oil inventories as of September 23 were -1.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -6.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -20.0% below the 5-year seasonal average.  U.S. crude oil production in the week ended September 23 fell -0.8% w/w to 12.0 million bpd, which is only -1.1 million bpd (-8.4%) below the Feb-2020 record-high of 13.1 million bpd.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active U.S. oil rigs in the week ended September 30 rose by +2 rigs to 604 rigs, just below the 2-1/4 year high of 605 rigs posted in the week ended July 29.  U.S. active oil rigs have more than tripled from the 17-year low of 172 rigs seen in Aug 2020, signaling an increase in U.S. crude oil production capacity.
 

• Nat-Gas Prices Decline on Record U.S. Output
• Crude Oil Prices Under Pressure from Global Economic Concerns
• Nat-Gas Prices Fall on Larger EIA Inventories and Record U.S. Production
• Crude Oil Modestly Higher on Expectations for OPEC+ to Cut Production